If you enjoy fresh snow, you’re going to enjoy reading this forecast. Even more than reading, you’re going to enjoy the riding over the next few days. But first, a note on the wind speeds. Different wind directions impact different locations in different ways. This leaves me with a bit of a dilemma: Do I report the free air 5000′ winds as predicted, or do I forecast the actual wind speeds that will occur at the top of MHX, the sensor I’m most comfortable with? I’m going to mix it up and predict the MHX sensor speed from now on, rather than the free air speed. This will likely translate to a better correlation between on-the-hill wind and predictions. Okay? Okay. Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 1000′ or less |
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| Tomorrow 1000′->5500′->2000′ |
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| The next day 2500′->4000′->1000′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
So. Expect a snowy day on Mt. Hood today, with light snow in the morning and heavier snow after 4pm, especially in the 4pm-9pm period. The snow level will be 500′ early and 1000′ in the afternoon. Approximately .2-.3” water value (WV) will fall between 7am and 4pm, for 2-4” of new snow. Another .6” WV arrives after 4pm, for 5-7” of new overnight. Wind today will be SW 25 early, becoming W 30-35 in the afternoon and holding overnight.
Tomorrow looks exciting. An upper level low swings right over the Columbia River, setting up brief periods of heavy snowfall along with very strong wind. There’s also a question about the snow level with this system; the exact track of the low will determine if the precip stays all snow or switches to a mix of rain, sleet and snow for a period of time. The snow level tomorrow starts off around 1500′, holds through noon, and then jumps to somewhere between 5000′ and 6500′ between 1pm and 4pm before falling back to 2000-2500′. We’ll see .6-1” WV between 4am and 4pm, some of which may fall as mixed precip, for (argh – hard to make this call) 4-8” of new snow? We’ll see another .6” WV after 4pm for 5-7” of new by Tuesday morning. Wind tomorrow will be problematic at times: SW 20 early, picking up to WSW 35 by noon. Between noon and 4pm, we’ll see the wind jump to WNW 60, likely shutting down many lifts. The wind will back off to WNW 45-50 after 4pm.
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Tuesday starts out snowy, and if the forecast is correct, continues to be extremely snowy all day long. The snow level Tuesday will be 2500′ early, rising to 4000′ (possibly higher) around noon before dropping back to 1000′ in the afternoon and holding there all night. If the models are correct, and we’re all going to cross our fingers they are, we’ll see 1” WV between 4am and 4pm for 10-12” of new snow. We’ll see another 1.5-2” WV between 4pm Tuesday and 4am Wednesday for another 16-24” of new snow. This seems rather ridiculous to me, given the setup, but I think the takeaway is this: A lot of snow will fall on Tuesday. The wind on Tuesday will start as W 40, dropping to SW 20 in the afternoon for a period and then jumping to a punishing, lift-stopping WNW 60 mid-afternoon.
Wednesday starts off with a ton of fresh snow on the ground and more snow falling from the sky. The snow level will be 500-1000′ all day, with another .6” WV during the day for 6-8” of fluffy snow. Wind will be enough to slow lifts, but probably not enough to stop them: WNW 40-50 all morning.
Thursday looks partly cloudy and cold with flurries and Christmas Day looks sunny and cold. Next weather system is scheduled for Saturday.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
We’re starting off the day with light east wind at 20mph at Rooster Rock and 9mph at Stevenson (thanks, iWindsurf/iKitesurf). We’ll see those easterlies fade during the morning, switching to W 10-13 through the whole Gorge this afternoon. Tomorrow looks rather frightening, especially for drivers on I-84. The days starts out rather unassuming, with light and variable wind. The wind turns to E 20-23 midday as an upper level low approaches. As that low swings overhead, the wind picks up to W 30-40+ through the whole Gorge with much stronger gusts likely. The strongest wind will be 1pm through 7pm, after which it will fade quickly. This is going to make for dangerous driving conditions between Troutdale and Hood River. Tuesday starts off with west 13-16 and picks up to W 30-35 in the eastern Gorge as a front swings through. Wednesday starts with W 15-18 and picks up to W 26-30 in the eastern Gorge late morning, lasting through the afternoon.
Random Morning Thoughts
We humans are funny creatures. Day after day we go to work, play, manage our lives, and generally act like adults. Once in a while, however, we lose our s**t. Instead of acting in accordance with our values or usual maturity level, we behave like emotionally unregulated children.
When we snap out that space, we can end up confused and embarrassed about our actions. We can also end up worried that we’ve alienated people around us forever.
That’s unlikely to be the case. As humans, we understand that no humans are perfect. We forgive each other for most transgressions. However, we’re less likely to forgive ourselves, and it often takes us longer to forgive ourselves than it takes for others to forgive us.
Screwing up is a learning opportunity, especially those screwups where we feel totally out of control. When that happens, we’ve tapped into something unconscious and powerful. It’s likely that thing, whatever it is, is impacting us day-to-day on some level. If we take the time to really study how we ended up acting in such a surprising way, we can learn and grow by leaps and bounds. By understanding the underlying trigger for our actions, we raise it from an unconscious level to a conscious level. That’s where change happens.
So, the next time you lose your s**t, the next time you freak out, see if you can spot the cause. View yourself with compassion and curiosity, rather than judgment. You’re interesting, after all, right? Be curious about you! What need wasn’t being met? Did you feel threatened in some way? Study yourself, and you’ll create a happier self. Happiness, duh, is awesome. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
As of 6am, it was apparently snowing on the Heights and raining down at river level, meaning I-84 looks good to go this morning between Portland and Hood River. Expect a cloudy, showery morning with a partly cloudy, showery afternoon and heavier rain after 4pm. Temps will be right around freezing early and in the low 40’s this afternoon. Areas over 1000′ will see an inch or two of snow today and tonight. Light east wind early, light west wind after noon. 99% chance of rainbows.
The temp model suggests we’ll drop just below freezing after midnight, but the sounding model suggests a freezing level of 1000′. This makes for a tricky forecast for tomorrow morning. It’s possible we’ll wake up to snow at river level, and it’s possible we’ll just have wet roads. Most likely scenario: mixed precip in HR proper through 1pm with snow above 1000′. Rain at all Gorge locations after 4pm. Temps will be right around freezing early and in the low to mid 40’s in the afternoon. Here’s the big problem tomorrow: an upper level low goes right over the top of us early afternoon, setting off NUKING west wind. It’s likely this storm will knock trees down on I-84, so it’s probably best if you don’t drive too/from Portland between 1pm and 7pm. 99% chance of rainbows.
Tuesday looks showery/rainy. Temps will be in the mid 30’s early and the low to mid 40’s in the afternoon. Light west wind early, strong west wind late. 99% chance of rainbows.
It’s possible we’ll see snow overnight Tuesday through mid-morning Wednesday. Once again, we’re right on the bubble down here in the city. Areas over 1000′, however, are going to get a lot of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday look cold and possibly sunny. Expect icy roads. As of right now, it looks like the precip will miss us on Saturday, a very good thing, as we were looking at an ideal ice storm setup.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
I did manage to find some riding yesterday – I took my hardtail 29’er out and went for a spin on the road. The sun was out, it wasn’t windy, and a few rainbows popped up while I was cruising around the Heights. I’m going to recommend you give it a shot! Other than that… the trails are muddy and snowy and not in any shape to be ridden.
Upcoming Events
Today is free demo day at Meadows. If you’ve been wanting to try some new skis or a new board, that’s the place to be. There are three free yoga classes today: 9am at Yoga Samadhi (Vinyasa Flow), 4pm at Pure Yoga in The Dalles (YogaFaith), and 6pm at Pure Yoga in Hood River (restorative slow flow). There’s pickup touch rugby at 3pm at the Mosier School and ping pong at the Hood River Armory at 5:30.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
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