11/17 Gorge wind, Mt. Hood ramen, and events

Posted by
 November 17, 2012

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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a

The more I look at the weather models for next week for Mt. Hood, the more uncooperative they’re getting. And… I’ve been chastised by Cliff Mass’ blog for using the “Pineapple Express” term with this incoming system. It’s actually a Teriyaki Express. Personally, I prefer the Mabo Ramen Express, so that’s what it’ll be. Too much coming-from-Japan in the storm track, but still a sub-tropical moisture connection.

Anyway, my point. It’s going to get warm, like a bowl of Mabo Ramen. You can get it at Kaze, and it’s delicious. None of the bitter taste of the Pineapple Express.

For rainy day events today, there are two work parties: one at the White Salmon Bike Park at 9am and one on Charley’s Trail (for friends of Charley LaVenture only) at 9am. Tomorrow there’s a WTA work party at Syncline. Today is also the AMS winter weather conference at OMSI. If you want to windsurf or kite, you can do so at Rooster or Stevenson, as a .17 east gradient drives wet easterlies at 30+.

Today is starting with rain on Mt. Hood, with the snow level hanging around 6500′. It will drop to 6000′ by 1pm, 5500′ by 4pm and 3500′ tonight. However, most of the moisture will be wrung out of the system before the snow level drops. .5” total precip before 5pm gives the 5000′ level .4” of rain and 1-2” max of wet snow. The nighttime hours bring flurries and starbreaks. Wind today will be SSW 30-35, dropping to SW 20-25 in the afternoon.

Sunday starts with a break in the precip, with snow showers through 4pm for maybe an inch or two of snow at most. The snow level will be at 4000′ early, rising to 5500′ by 4pm, 6000′ by 7pm and 7000′ by 10pm. Heavy rain begins around 7pm, for 1.5” or so by Monday morning. Wind Sunday will be SW 40 for much of the day, rising to SW 50-60+ overnight.

Monday looks danged wet. The snow level will be 7000′ in the morning, 9000′ mid-morning, 7000′ in the afternoon, and 6500′ by 10pm. About 1.5” of rain falls during the day (unless the storm track moves a bit further east, at which point all bets are off). The worst comes overnight, when several inches of rain will fall. Wind Monday will be SW 40-45 early, rising to SW 50-70 mid-morning, and falling to 30-40 around 10pm.

The models suggest the snow level will drop to 5500′ by 1am and hold through mid-morning Tuesday, so we may (or may not) see some snow out of the inches and inches of rain. Tuesday’s a tough call at this point, and I’m going to have to play wait-and-see. The snow level hovers around 5500-6000′ during the day. There will be .5” water value in the questionable period. After 7pm, the snow level drops to 4500′, and another 1-1.5” water value accompanies that drop, for 10-16” of snow by Wednesday morning. Wind Tuesday will be SW 40-50+ all day.

At this point, Wednesday looks cold enough for snow, but only flurries will fall after the overnight dumping. Models really diverge after Wednesday. My choice model says Thursday will be dry (another model says 1.5” rain). Friday looks warm and rainy. Saturday also looks warm and rainy. However, another set of models says it will dry out after Wednesday. With this kind of disagreement, there’s really no way to forecast beyond Wednesday. I had previously placed a bet on Friday for a Meadows opening, but now I’m not so sure.

Have an awesome day today!