11/18 Mt. Hood rain forecast and Gorge break-in-the-rain forecast

Posted by
 November 18, 2012

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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a

I was sitting around last night looking at weather models. They’re looking quite shocking for the next 5-7 days. I needed Cliff Mass’ take, and I’m going to recommend you take a look at his blog post regarding the Superfront and the amount of moisture in the upcoming week: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Hopefully you have several home project you can take care of in the next few days. At least it’s going to be relatively warm for this time of year… If you like working on trails, join WTA at Syncline this morning to work on some trail rerouting. Your best chance for a break in the rain to play outside during the next few days will be early afternoon today, not at all tomorrow, and Tuesday afternoon.

That said, I’d love to tell you we’re going to get 15′ of snow this week, but I can’t tell you that. At least it’s snowing this morning, and at least we have 7” of new on the ground. The snow level is around 3500′ this morning, but it will rise to 5500′ by 1pm, 6000′ by 7pm and 7500′ by 10pm. Light snow continues through 1pm or so, for 1-3” more accumulation. After that, a break in the weather is followed by rain starting around 7pm, for 1.7” or so by 4am Monday. Wind today will be SW 30-35 for much of the day, ramping up to SW 50-60 by 7pm and dropping to SW 45-50 by 10pm.

Monday just looks bad. The snow level starts around 9000′, and rises to 10,000′ by 1pm before dropping to 7000′ at 4pm and 6500′ overnight. Mt. Hood gets 1.6” of rain by 4pm and another three to four inches (I typed that out so there’d be no confusion) of rain overnight into Tuesday. Wind on Monday will be SW 60-70 at 4am, rising to 70-80 by 1pm as a low-level jet smashes into Mt. Hood and then slowly dropping to SW 35-40 by 7pm. At least it’s not a west or northwest wind…

Tuesday’s the questionable day. The snow level looks to be 7000′ at 1am, 6000′ at 7am and 6500′ at 1pm before dropping to 5000′ at 10pm. 2” of water value falls before 4pm, followed by another .4” through 4am Wednesday. The last .4” will fall as snow, for 3-5” of new. The 2” during the day is questionable. Obviously, we’ll get snow above 6500′, but below that, it’ll likely be a mix of rain and snow. It’s a couple days out, so I’m not making a firm decision yet. Plus, I think the rain later in the week renders a weekend ski resort opening suboptimal, so Tuesday isn’t critical. Wind on Tuesday will be SW 45-50 early, 35-40 midday, 50-60 after noon, and 45-50 into the evening.

Wednesday, thankfully, looks cold, with the snow level around 3500′ all day and 1-1.5” water value for 10-18” of new snow at 5000′. Most of that will fall by 4pm, with another .2-.4” WV overnight, for 2-4” more. However… Don’t get too excited, because another model says Wednesday will only see .25-.5” water value total. Wind Wednesday will be SW 30-40 all day.

That said… Thursday brings another round of snow, but Friday and Saturday both look very wet and warm, with 1-2” of rain each day.

Have an awesome day today!