There’s not much happening out on the river this morning. As a matter of fact, there’s enough glass on the river in front of my house for the raindrop ripples to be the largest ripples visible. Further east, out in the sunshine, the wind is in the teens. Gradients at 6am were .04 (pdx-dls) and .06 (dls-psc). The models predict the wind will pick up as the day goes on. However, atmospheric instability will drive increasing clouds and rain showers, along with possible thunder this afternoon, making for tricky predicting (yet again). Continued after the chart…
| Your favorite beach | Dawn Patrol |
9am- 11:30a |
11:30a- 3pm |
3pm- dusk |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooster Rock | rain | thunder | naked | lumberers | |
| Steven’s Locks | light | 5-10 | 10-13 | light | |
| Hatchery/White Salmon Sandbar (minus a few for Hood River) | light | 5-10 | 10-13 | light | |
| Doug’s, Lyle, Rowena | light | 10-13 | 22-25? | 22-25? | |
| Rufus, etc. | light | 13-16 | 22-25? | 22-25? | |
| Roosevelt, etc. | 16-19 | 19-22 | 22-25 | 22-25 | |
| Roosevelt, etc. | 16-19 | 20-24 | 28-32 | 28-32 | |
|
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Gorge wind forecast, continued…
If you believe today’s models, we’ll see light wind in the western Gorge this morning with 13-16 in the eastern Gorge. That was happening at Arlington as of 7am. Models suggest we’ll see 13-16 from Mosier eastward by midday with 10-13 from Stevenson to Bingen. That seems reasonable. Models predict we’ll see 22-25 this afternoon from Lyle east to Boardman. Although that’s possible, I think it’s more likely we’ll see increasing clouds and shower and even thunder, making the drive for that wind anything but a sure thing.
All this messiness in the forecast is driven by the presence of an upper level low pressure system, and that system will be right on top of us on Wednesday. That’ll give us light and variable wind to start the day, followed by W 10-13 through much of the Gorge in the afternoon. It’s possible we’ll see a brief period of 15-18 near Rowena late in the afternoon on Wednesday.
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That friendly low pressure system moves right off the coast on Thursday, exactly the opposite of what we’d like to see for Gorge wind. We may start off the day with a brief period of 16-19 through much of the Gorge. As the low gets all coastally comfy, the wind will back off to 10-13 or less. It looks like that low pressure system might finally go away on Friday, setting us up with a more reliable round of westerlies. Stay tuned.
I just received an email from a PR person in Mosier saying that Rock Creek is probably not open today. The oil booms are still in place, and construction will begin on the sewage line replacement at Rock Creek today, hopefully to be finished by Friday. Please stay out of the area until official information arrives saying that the beach has reopened. Mahalo for your kokua.
Mt. Adams Country Bike Tour – Temira’s Favorite!
The 14th Annual Mt. Adams Country Bicycle Tour on June 25th will have you cycling on quiet country roads around the Trout Lake area with Mt. Adams right over your shoulder. Four ride options include an 11½-mile Family Friendly ride, a 51-mile Trout Lake – BZ Corner – Glenwood Loop, a 54-mile Forest Route and a 105-mile Infinity Ride. All rides feature well-marked routes, well-stocked rest stops, lunch and dinner options, plus sag wagons, repair support and emergency coverage.It’s a carefree ride through some of the most spectacular scenery in the Pacific Northwest.
Jones, Sauvie’s, Coast Beta Test Forecast
Jones Tuesday: 13-16?. Jones Wednesday: 5-10. Jones Thursday: 7-10. Sauvie’s Tuesday: west wind. Sauvie’s Wednesday: NW 13-16. Sauvie’s Thursday: 5-8. Coast: light onshore wind the next three days. Swell today: NW 6′ @ 9. Wednesday: W 6′ @ 10. Thursday: SW 3′ @ 14.
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Thank you for using this forecast. Does it save you time, gas money, or help you have more fun in your life? Make a donation! Get your forecast here for free or donate and get on the mailing list for year-round wind forecasts and ski season snow forecasts. Just click on my photo to donate via PayPal or credit card. The email isn’t $99/year. Not $50/year. No, just $12.34 or more gets you on the list for 12 months, and sometimes there are cool prizes. Don’t PayPal? Send a check to Temira @ PO Box 841 in Hood River. Thank you for your support, and thank you for trusting my forecast.
Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
Timberline received 3” of new snow overnight, and will receive some more today. The snow level will be 4000′ early and 5500′ this afternoon with around 3” of additional snow. Wednesday brings flurries with the snow level at 5000′ early and 6500′ in the afternoon. No real accumulation. Thursday starts off with the snow level around 6000′, riding to 6500′ in the afternoon.
Random Morning Thoughts
Wind forecasting is a tricky thing, even trickier than weather forecasting. We’re all limited on time, and we’d like to know for sure if it’s going to be windy, and if so, exactly where it’s going to be windy. I find myself craving this certainty too, even though I’m the one writing the forecast!
Forecasting, however, is much like life, where the answers and options are technicolor, not black or white. I find I put pressure on myself to come up with the “right” forecast, when there is no “right” answer on many days. We all do this in real life – when we try and make a decision, we want to make the “right” decision.
We try to determine the answer by making lists of pros and cons. We ask friends for advice. We use The Google. And still, many times, any of the available options feel equally good or equally bad. When this happens, the best thing we can do is stop telling ourselves a story about needing to find the right answer. Such self-talk only makes decision-making more difficult and undermines self-esteem. There’s often is no perfect choice or perfect solution. There’s only the solution that lets us move forward.
So, if you find yourself striving for a just-right answer or solution, give yourself a break. Life, like forecasting wind, is messy. Right answers don’t always exist. Sometimes you just have to make a choice and move on. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist (but I could be in 708 days). I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues. One other thing: I plan to keep doing this forecast indefinitely, even when I am a therapist.
Gorge Weather Forecast
In the last 18 hours, we’ve had a lot of rain, even for June. As a matter of fact, as of 7am, we’d received .45” of rain in the last 24 hours. Your garden, if you have one, is happy. Your cherries, if you have them, are not. If that rain wasn’t enough for you, good, because we’re expecting showers all day with heavier showers and a chance of thunder and hail in the afternoon. Temps will be in the upper 40’s early (brrr – close windows!) and the low 60’s in the afternoon. Light wind early, moderate later, 98.47% chance of rainbows.
A low pressure system sits right on top of us on Wednesday, making for a mostly cloudy, showery day, but not as wet as Tuesday. Temps will be in the mid 40’s early (brrr!) and the mid 60’s in the afternoon. There’s a slight chance of thunder in the afternoon. Light wind. 94% chance of rainbows. Thursday looks just like Wednesday.
For weather specifically directed at travel through the Gorge, please visit Temira’s Awesome Travel Advisory Service on Facebook.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Never mind the unclear messaging about the 450 trail. Somebody went up and cut down all those fallen trees last night (while it was snowing), so it’s now open. Closer to home, I received a report last night that Post was “too muddy to ride” and with .45” of rain in the last 18 hours, I’d guess that report is spot-on. Perhaps a trail run is in order rather than a bike ride today? Road biking, if you can stand the rain, will be nice in the light wind this morning. Or how about something different: a day off! Oh, and the Twin Tunnels Trail has reopened, once again giving us a full slate of open road bike rides. The Gorge Ride is this Saturday, if you’d like to do a supported ride, and the Mt. Adams Country Bike Tour is next weekend.
Upcoming Events
Today’s events are free community yoga at 4:30 at Flow, a Hood River County trails committee meeting at the Extension office at 5, pickup touch rugby at the Waterfront Park in Hood River at 5:30, pickleball at May Street Elementary at 5:15, meditation at Samadhi at 6:30, and Zumba at 6:30 at the Parkdale community center. There’s meditation at Flow tomorrow morning at 8:15, yoga at the Heartgate Sanctuary tomorrow at 8:30, ping pong at the Armory at 5pm and the women’s Post n’ Pinot (trail conditions permitting) leaving Dirty Fingers at 5:30.
It’s opening day of sailing season in Cascade Locks on Saturday with free sailboat rides, it’s the Summer Solstass ultramarathon in Yacolt and the Washougal Race for the Future cross-county mountain bike race. There’s also a trail work party next Saturday in Post Canyon at Binn’s Hill Staging Area and the White Salmon Backyard Half Marathon, benefiting local youth runners.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
