After taking three days off and getting soaked riding my bike in Portland, I had to go check the webcams to see what was happening on Mt. Hood. Looks like there’s still just a trace of snow up there, but that will change this week. For today, it’ll be mostly sunny on Mt. Hood. The free air freezing level will be 3000′ early and 4000′ in the afternoon. The wind will be W 5-10 early and NW 10-15 in the afternoon and evening. In other words, it’ll be a great day for a hike! Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 3000′–>4000′ |
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| Tomorrow 4000′–>5000′ |
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| The Next Day 5500′–>2500′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
Tomorrow will probably start off clear and sunny, but clouds will move in during the afternoon with flurries overnight. Depending on the timing of the next weather system, we may see an inch or two of snow after midnight, but that’s an iffy proposition at this point. Expect the freezing level on Tuesday to be 4000′ early, 3000′ midday, and 5000′ after midnight. Wind will be NW 15 early, turning to the west and picking up to W 35 overnight.
Wednesday morning sees the arrival of a wet cold front. NOAA’s forecast discussion today was talking about 2” of moisture, but I’m not sure where they’re getting that; I’m seeing just under 1” of moisture with this system. It will be accompanied with strong WNW flow, which does tend to enhance the snowfall rate, but still…
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Anyway, the snow level will be around 5000′-5500′ on Wednesday morning, falling to 3000′ around 7am, 2500′ in the afternoon, and 1500′ by Thursday morning. The bulk of the moisture will come in between 4am and noon on Wednesday. Expect .8-1.0” water value (WV) for 6-9” of snow at 5000′. The wind on Wednesday will be WSW 55 early, swinging to a brutal WNW 45-50 midday and fading to WNW 30 in the afternoon.
In the long-range forecast, there’s not much happening Thursday or Friday. The GFS model predicts two strong weather systems this weekend. However, it’s currently looking like the bulk of the moisture will come in with the snow level above 5500′. That, of course, could change.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
It’s another one of those glassy fall mornings in the Gorge with just a little gradient: .03 from PDX-DLS. The river water temp, in case you were wondering, is 57 degrees. As a upper level low moves into California this afternoon, high pressure will build off the coast. That sets the Gorge up for 13-16 pretty much everywhere by noon with 22-25 possible from Mosier to Rowena, possibly even to Rufus, this afternoon.
Tomorrow starts off with leftover westerlies at 5-10 – maybe a touch more – from Hood River to Arlington. As the day goes on, the wind will pick up to gusty 20-23 from Hood River to The Dalles. This wind will be driven by an approaching warm front. It’s really not a great setup, but it’s better than no wind at all if you happen to be looking for wind.
Now, on to Wednesday. I’m getting kinda excited about Wednesday, except for the fact that I have trouble windsurfing in cold weather, and the high on Wednesday is predicted to be 48 degrees. Leaving the temperature consideration aside, Wednesday’s looking like a very windy day. A cold front swings through in the morning and very strong high pressure builds off the coast. As of right now, models are predicting a nuker, with 30+ from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Models are also predicting the wind will fill in through the whole Gorge. I suspect we’ll see very gusty conditions near Hood River with steadier conditions out east.
Random Morning Thoughts
I spent the weekend, as many of you know, at a Hakomi training in Portland. It was amazing. Hakomi combines many of my favorite things: nonviolence, curiosity, psychotherapy and mindfulness. Plus, Hakomi practitioners tend to be gentle, self-aware, compassionate people. I do love me some Hakomi people! I’m going to hush up about Hakomi now, because I want to talk about something else: Crisis.
We tend to think of a crisis as a point in time where really bad things are happening and where the potential exists for much worse things to happen. That’s a narrow definition of crisis, and one that’s tilted toward the negative end of the spectrum.
I’d like to propose a different model: a crisis is a tipping point. When a person is experiencing a lot of noise in the internal world (be it positive or negative), they are vulnerable. They are primed to shift into a new state of being, much like an electron can jump from one shell to the next. Perhaps the person can make that shift alone, but it’s more likely to happen in relationship with another person. After all, we are relational beings with interconnected mind-bodies.
Crises are opportunities for change. A crisis is a moment where an individual’s world can fall apart or coalesce in a new and positive way. A crisis is an opportunity, and if we don’t take advantage of it, the opportunity may be lost forever. So, the next time you see someone in a state of flux, be it positive or negative, ask what they need from you. Or offer what your heart tells you they might need. You’ll help the person on the path towards integration and self-actualization. Self-actuallized people are awesome. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s partly cloudy out there this morning and shall remain so today, with a chance of the clouds going away altogether. Temps will be near 40 degrees early (which would explain my cold toes) and 50 degrees this afternoon (apparently my toes aren’t going to warm up today). Light to moderate wind. No rainbows. Tomorrow starts off with one of two options: clear sky or the Nothing cloud. Temps will be in the upper 30’s early and low 50’s in the afternoon. Expect partly cloudy sky midday with high clouds late in the day as a warm front moves in. Moderate wind. No rainbows. The Tuesday warm front will be followed by a cold front and rain on Wednesday morning. Temps will be in the low 40’s early and the upper 40’s in the afternoon. Nuking west wind. 96% chance of rainbows.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
I’m so out of the loop on biking right now. I feel like the only solution for this is for me to go mountain biking this morning before I head into Portland for school. I suspect there’s some very good dirt out there, but what I really need are reports from the 44 Road. All I have is a report of 20 trees down on 8-mile, and that’s got me wondering about the rest of the riding up there… Also, the upper half of the 44 Road trails will likely get buried in the upcoming storm on Wednesday. In road biking news, today looks okay: moderate west wind. Tomorrow morning looks good. Wednesday? Not a good day for road biking.
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Upcoming Events
Today is Monday. You can play Tai Chi at the Mt. Hood Town Hall at 1pm. At 6:30, you can do yoga at Samadhi, yoga at the Mt. Hood Town Hall, or Zumba at the Mt. Hood Community Center. All those are free or by donation. Coming up tomorrow night, there’s meditation at Yoga Samadhi at 6:30. A very senior American monk will be visiting. His name is Ajahn Geoff, and he’s pretty darn cool. I highly recommend you come check it out! If you’d like more meditation, there’s a half-day retreat at Yoga Samadhi on Saturday, 1-5pm. Also on Saturday, the HRATS have a trail work party in Post Canyon.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
