weather - The Gorge is my Gym

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Random Morning Thoughts

Anyone interested in a job? I need a writer. A communicator. A skier or snowboarder. Wed-Sun, 2-9:30pm at Meadows. You’d be answering switchboard, recording the snowphone, and updating the conditions page on the website. Email me a paragraph containing the proper use of all variations of the homophones of “your”, “its”, “to”, and “there” to apply.

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
Thursday
Friday
Saturday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Know what frustrates me most about forecasting? When the models’ predictions of precip amounts change dramatically from one day to the next. Yesterday’s runs showed .8-1” WV tonight, and now they show .3-.4”. That’s great if you’re worried about a low-elevation ice storm, but not great if you’re looking for powder skiing.

Anyway, today starts out warm and dry and clear on Mt. Hood, with clouds moving in quickly and precip starting around 4pm. The snow level will be 7500′ early, dropping to 3500′ around noon or a bit later. We’ll see .3-.4” water value (WV) between 4pm today and 4am Friday, for 3-5” of new snow. Wind will be SW 30 early, turning to NW 25-35 in the afternoon.

Friday starts with lingering flurries, becoming clear midday. The snow level will be 4500′ early, 3500′ midday, and then the free air freezing level, under clear sky, will rise to 8,000′ or so overnight. We’ll see 1” or less of snow on Friday. Wind will be WNW 20 for much of the day, becoming more northerly in the evening.

Saturday looks partly cloudy to start, becoming cloudy midday, with the free air freezing level around 10,000′. No precip. Wind will be NW 15 early, W 20 midday and W 35 in the afternoon. Sunday starts off clear and warm, with the FAF at 10,000. A few sprinkles may move in midday. Winds look strong: W 30-40.

Next significant round of precip arrives during the middle of next week.

Plain Old Local Weather

Oh dear, oh dear. This is a difficult forecast, and a potentially very ugly forecast. Let me say that I am not the only one hedging this morning. NOAA’s forecast discussion contained the phrase “LOW CONFIDENCE” (they write in all-caps) multiple times. As for my confidence, I am 80% sure that we’ll see freezing rain this afternoon.

If the clouds do not burn off in the Gorge today, and the clouds do not clear in the desert, and the east gradient does not decrease significantly, and the temps do not warm above freezing here and east of here by 4pm, we are going to see freezing rain in the Gorge this evening. Under the worst-case scenario, you can expect freezing rain to last through the wee hours of Friday.

Fortunately, there’s not a lot of precipitable water with this system, meaning we’re only going to see a tenth of an inch or two of ice, enough to cause hazardous driving this evening, but not enough to destroy our already-damaged forests.

Yuck.

Anyway, Friday should warm up above freezing by mid-morning, at the latest, with low clouds in the Gorge and light west wind. Saturday and Sunday looks partly cloudy and above freezing.

Gorge Wind Forecast

We’ll start off with strong east wind today, with 26-30 at Steven’s Locks and 40-45 at Rooster. The wind will fade during the day. As noted above, it’s a difficult forecast on the timing of the switch to west wind. Models say 1-4pm, but I think they’re being overly optimistic. Middle of the night, maybe?

Friday brings westerlies at 13-15 and Saturday and Sunday bring west wind of some sort, to be determined.

Road and Mountain Biking

I really want to ride my bike, but it’s too cold for me. I get chilly going downhill. I did see people riding bikes in Post Canyon yesterday. It’s frozen solid. So, if you want to ride slightly snowy, frozen-solid trails, Post is the place!

The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Swing by Andrew’s tonight for the ski documentary “McConkey”. Coming up Sunday, Meadows has the winter ski demo day. Free demos.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

Please support this forecast by clicking on the photo of the forecaster!

Your forecaster. Click on her to donate. Thank you!

Random Morning Thoughts

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Finally! It’s going to snow! Not today. Tomorrow. Today will be clear on Mt. Hood (a nice place to escape the valley fog) with the free air freezing level (FAF) rising to 5000′ mid-morning and 7000′ in the afternoon. Wind will be W 5-10 early and SW 10 in the afternoon.

High clouds move in Thursday morning. The snow level will be 7000′ early, 5000′ midday, and 4000′ or so when the precip hits around 1pm. Expect .8”-.9” water value (WV) between 1pm Thursday and 4am Friday, for 7-10” of new snow. Wind on Thursday will be SW 30 in the morning and WSW 30-35 in the afternoon.

Friday sees a few lingering flurries in the morning before the sky clears over Mt. Hood. The snow level will be 4000′ early and 3000′ by midday, holding through the evening. Wind will be NW 25 early and NW 20 through the afternoon.

Saturday looks high overcast, warm, and mostly dry, with the FAF around 7000′.

Plain Old Local Weather

Oh dear. It is mighty fortunate we’re out of the worst of the cold spell, but that likely won’t save us from a messy Thursday evening.

Today’s a bit of a loss to The Thing That Lives in the Gorge – Nothing weather. The gloomy clouds will hang around all day, maybe breaking up a little bit – I do see a few sunbeams outside my window… Combine the lack of sun (sunny happy lamps do not count) for a sub-freezing day in the Gorge. No precip.

Tomorrow starts with the company of the Nothing cloud and an easterly gradient and temps in the mid-20’s. The cloud will insulate the Gorge from the sun’s rays tomorrow, contributing to a messy evening. As a weather system slides over the top of the entrapped cold air, we’ll most likely see a round of freezing rain. This should start between 1pm and 4pm and last until the cold air is scoured from the Gorge. Models have a poor track record of predicting the switch from east wind to west wind in these events, so it’s hard to say when we’ll go above freezing or how much ice we’ll see. Be prepared with chains or studs tomorrow evening.

By Friday morning, we should be above freezing in the Gorge. I hope. But models are predicting another round of low clouds, which is an odd prediction if we’re back to west wind. Call it partly cloudy on Friday and above freezing, with a few lingering morning sprinkles. But you won’t be here, because you’ll be on the mountain skiing powder.

Long range… models are hinting at another cold snap during the middle of next week.

Gorge Wind Forecast

Temps have dropped back below freezing this morning in the Gorge as east winds have returned to Steven’s Locks and Rooster Rock. Expect easterlies at 25-30 at Steven’s Locks today and 35-45 at Rooster. Tomorrow starts off with light east wind, and switches to west wind late in the evening. Friday brings westerlies at 13-15 from Steven’s Locks to HR and 21-24 further east.

Road and Mountain Biking

Ugh. I really want to ride my bike.

The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Coming up tonight, the Recreation Trails Committee meets at the OSU extension office at 5pm. There’s an open house for the proposed Lyle trail system from 5:30-7pm at the Lyle Activity Center. There’s Karma Yoga at 4pm (free/by donation at Flow), and there’s Kayak Polo at the Hood River pool at 8pm. Tomorrow night, you’ll want to head to Andrew’s for the ski documentary “McConkey”. Night skiing starts at Meadows on Friday.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira