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Black Friday Forecast



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Good morning!

We’ll start off today with another freezing rain update. There’s freezing rain at Cascade Locks right now, and traction tires are required on I-84. Will the highway close today, preventing you from doing your Black Friday shopping in Portland, forcing you to shop in The Dalles? Probably.

Right now we have an east .16 gradient and enough wind at Rooster Rock or Stevenson for total nutcases to get on the water. I’m bringing up the gradient because it’s strong enough that it will take a good, long while for the cold air to mix out of the Gorge. With .25” to .5” of water value expected today, we’re in trouble in the Gorge. CL is going to see plenty of ice, and HR, WS, Odell and Parkdale are going to see several inches of snow before NOAA’s “frozen mess” switches over to ice. Or maybe we’ll get lucky like CL and just see freezing rain, but that’s unlikely, and would be a disaster.

When will we switch back to rain? I think we’ll see an end to the frozen stuff tomorrow, by midmorning at the latest.

Now, on to your recreation report.

It’s going to snow all day today on the mountain. 9-12” by tomorrow morning with snow levels at 3500’ seems about right. It’s also going to be windy today, with sustained 20-30 at MHM by early afternoon. It’s not going to shut down the mountain, but it is going to be storm skiing. We’ll see another 4-6” tomorrow with snow levels around 3000’. Sunday looks partly cloudy and cold, with the snow level at 1500-2000’ and occasional flurries.

We’ll see a change in the weather in favor of boaters on Monday and Tuesday. There won’t be much precip on Monday, but warming temperatures might do some damage to the packed powder snow surface. On Tuesday, the rain begins. If we’re lucky, it will stay to the north of Mt. Hood. If not, we’re going to see 1-2” of rain fall up to 7000’ or so. Like I said, it a forecast for boaters. I’ll be taking pictures of you nuts running the Hood at 7+ feet late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

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Categories
Forecast

Thansgiving day forecast



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Good morning!

First, your freezing rain update. It looks like the worst of the ice/snow storm in the Gorge will hold off until about 2am Friday morning, so if you are headed to Portland for Thanksgiving, make sure you leave town before that. I’d say there’s about a 30% chance of very light ice/snow falling between 4pm and 2am, so do be prepared for that possibility as well. Given that east gradients are quite light with this system, I do think we’re more likely to see freezing rain or sleet than snow with this system.

In the mountains, this storm will fall as snow, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow levels closer to 4500 feet at the beginning, rather than at 3500 feet as NOAA is predicting. Today should be cloudy on the slopes with little or no precipitation and moderate winds. Tomorrow looks problematic, as a frontal system hits the Cascade volcanoes with 30-40 knot winds in the morning, building to 40-45 knots in the afternoon, decreasing late in the day for the last couple of hours of night skiing.

That said, we’ll see snow all day Friday, with the heaviest snow starting around 2-4pm. By Saturday morning, we should see 9-13” of new snow from this system. Another 4-6” should fall Saturday morning, with the weather breaking for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Windspeeds Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20-25 mph range. On Monday, another big storm hits the Cascades for significant snow accumulation. Temperatures will warm up from the bitter cold we’ve been seeing, with highs in the mid to upper twenties and lows in the upper teens to low twenties.

If you’re a Meadows passholder in the Gorge, today is the day you’ve been waiting for. HRM is now open. The Meadows Nordic Center is open as well, and night skiing starts tomorrow at both Meadows and Skibowl (where you can get the world’s 2nd best nachos).

If you’re heading into the backcountry, be careful. We have significant unconsolidated new snow above 5000ft with faceting at the top and bottom. Avy danger will be much higher late tomorrow and especially Saturday. Check NWAC.us for the detailed Avy forecast.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

p.s. If you find this report useful, entertaining, or just want to recognize all the hard work that goes into it, please take the time to make a donation by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. For a suggested donation of $10, I’ll add you to the email version of this list ‘til November 2011, putting you in the running for cool prizes donated by the weekly sponsors.