Tag: powder

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Thank you for using this forecast. Please tell your friends about it! And if you or your friends think this service is awesome/useful/saves you gas money/makes your life more fun, make a donation by clicking on my photo above. Is more fun worth $50/year? $20/year? Donate what it’s worth to you (and thank you!), but $12 minimum gets you on the email list (with occasional giveaways) for a year. Thank you for your support, and have fun today!

Random Morning Thoughts

I slept in ’til 6:50 today. That must be a record. Sorry about the late forecast.

Cool Local Business – Please Support It

ReRack, a 6-year-old Portland business, is your place to buy, sell, and trade your Yakima and Thule rack parts. Brilliant idea, right? They provide free advice and free basic installation too. Head to ReRack, 2240 NE Sandy Blvd, to buy your first rack, sell your old rack or better yet make your old rack work on your new vehicle! Check out www.rerackpdx.com or Call (503) 875-6055 for more information. Go check it out. What a brilliant idea!

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
	4a-8a	8a-12p	12p-4p	4p-8p	8p-4a
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

The next several days bring a very complicated weather setup to the region, making predicting the weather for Mt. Hood equally as difficult as predicting the weather for the Gorge, one of the most difficult places to predict in the world. Figures that I’d try. I’m a glutton for punishment. Basically, models are predicting snow for Mt. Hood all weekend without any real organized weather systems moving through. Last time this happened, we saw several inches of easterly-driven orographic snowfall. So, I’m going to hedge a bit on what the models are saying, but still go with snow.

This morning looks partly cloudy on Mt. Hood, with low clouds down low and some high clouds moving in. By afternoon, it’ll be cloudy, and by 7pm, it’ll be snowing. We’ll see the snow level at 3500′ early, dropping to the surface by 10pm. We’ll see .2-.4” water value (WV) between 7pm today and 4am Saturday, for 2-4” of new snow. Wind will be light and variable early, becoming S at 10-15 this afternoon.

Saturday starts off mostly clear with some low and mid-level clouds, possibly rising above ski area base elevations for foggy conditions. Temps will be in the low double-digits at 5000′ and in the 20’s at 8000′. Models claim these mid-level clouds will produce snowfall in the afternoon, for .2-.4” WV overnight and 2-4” of new snow. Okay. Let’s go with it. But one other prominent feature shows in the Saturday models: heavy precip about 50-100 miles south of Mt. Hood. If that shifts between now and reality-time, we’ll see very heavy snowfall on Mt. Hood on Saturday. Wind will be W 15 early, rising to W 30-40 in the afternoon.

Sunday looks fascinating. Mt. Hood starts with mid-level clouds and snowfall, and then a warm front moves in during the afternoon. Temps at 5000′ will slowly warm during the day, but will remain below freezing until 10pm or so. However, I think we’ll see snow in the morning starting around 10am, followed by a switch to sleet, freezing rain and rain sometime between 4pm and 7pm, as temps rise above freezing at 6000′. So, we’ll see .4-.6” water value (WV) before the switch for 2-3” of heavy, dense snowfall. After the switch, models are insisting on an impressive 2” of water value that falls as rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain. Yuck. Wind on Sunday will be WSW 35-40 during the day, rising to WSW 40-50 after 4pm.

On Monday, models show the snow level at 6000-6500′ with 2-3” WV. Wet. Very wet. And windy, with westerlies at 40mph.

Gorge Wind

The NOAA AFD this morning was talking about limited east wind today with only a .03 gradient, but that gradient is up to .11 as of 7am. So take that, NOAA. Wind speeds are currently in the mid-20’s at Steven’s Locks and upper 30’s at Rooster. They will stay there, or maybe increase a bit. Saturday brings east wind at 40-50 at Rooster and Sunday brings easterlies at 30-40. By Monday midday, we’ll be back to west flow.

Gorge Weather

We’re expecting cold air to move into the Gorge today or tonight. If you’d like to watch the progress of the cold air, check this map of temps.

Gosh this is a tough one. Models are all over the place with how much cold air we’ll get, when we’ll get it, and what the p-type will be when moisture encounters this cold air. So, let’s take this one piece at a time. Today will bring temps in the upper 30’s this morning, going to the low 40’s this afternoon and dropping below freezing sometime tonight. The Gorge will spend the day under an inversion cloud that’s topped with high clouds. Precip will start between 7pm and 10pm. It may start as rain, but will switch to snow overnight for a trace to 2” by morning. Roads will be very slick Saturday morning.

Saturday looks cloudy, with mid-level clouds blocking the sun from the chilly Gorge. Temps will be in the 20’s all day. At this point, it looks like the majority of the precip in Oregon tomorrow will stay south of Mt. Hood, meaning we’ll see a mostly dry day in the Gorge. However, if anything changes between now and then, we could see a very snowy day. We will see snow after 4pm, for another 1-3” by Sunday morning.

Things get really difficult Sunday. If the GFS sounding is correct, we’ll stay sub-freezing through early Monday morning. It’s actually been scouring the cold air out too slowly this year, in sharp contrast with the other models. So, I suspect that we’ll see snow starting mid-morning Sunday, switching to freezing rain after 4pm and switching to plain-old-rain after midnight. Sunday will not be a good day to drive through the Gorge.

Monday looks much warmer, and very, very wet.

Road and Mountain Biking

If you like riding in above-freezing temps, today is your day. If you like riding roads that aren’t covered in snow and ice, today is your day. If you like tacky Syncline, today is your day.

The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Coming up March 8th, it’s Bowl For Kids’ Sake, the annual fundraiser for Big Brothers, Big Sisters. Now look, folks. This program saves lives. Kids who have a “big” have lower dropout rates, better mental health, better grades and more success in life. Trust me on this one, and please make a donation. Any amount helps. And if you want to be involved, there are about 20 boys looking for a Big. Just 2 hours a week can change a kid’s life. Call 541-436-0306 for more information.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

Please support this forecast by clicking on the photo of the forecaster!

Your forecaster. Click on her to donate. Thank you!

Thank you for using this forecast. Please tell your friends about it! And if you or your friends think this service is awesome/useful/saves you gas money/makes your life more fun, make a donation by clicking on my photo above. Is more fun worth $50/year? $20/year? Donate what it’s worth to you (and thank you!), but $12 minimum gets you on the email list (with occasional giveaways) for a year. Thank you for your support, and have fun today!

Random Morning Thoughts

I could get used to lolly-gagging in bed for an hour before I get up and write the forecast. This is nice.

Cool Local Business – Please Support It

The Best Western Plus Hood River Inn has great ski and stay packages for Mt. Hood, starting at $209 for a one-day ski & ride package for two people. Multi-day ski packages are crazy good deals. Save yourself the snowy, stressful drive home and stay in the Hood! For all you visitors and locals, show this add and Buy one entrée, get second entrée HALF PRICE for lunch or dinner, Sunday-Thursday through February 28th. And don’t forget about the awesome M-F 4-6pm Happy Hour and Tuesday $12 Prime Rib!

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
	4a-8a	8a-12p	12p-4p	4p-8p	8p-4a
Thursday
Friday
Saturday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

I just spent 30 minutes writing the Gorge weather forecast. It’s so fascinating… such a cool place to live if you happen to be a weather junkie!

I keep forgetting to mention that Skibowl opened the Upper Bowl a couple of weeks ago, so they are now totally open. And they still have the best nachos on Mt. Hood, rivaled for “best ever” only by the nachos at Everybody’s in White Salmon.

I also keep forgetting to mention that I have a pair of last year’s Rossignol S7W, 178cm, in excellent condition, for sale. Skied maybe 30 times. Mounted once for Axl Tele bindings. This ski is exactly the same as the men’s 178cm S7 with radder graphics. Best offer or trade offer. No silly or insulting offers, please.

Now, the forecast. Today looks like a mixed precip day on Hood. The snow level will be 6000′ early, dropping a bit to 5500′ mid-afternoon and then rising to 6500′ around 4pm before dropping back to 5500′ in Friday’s wee hours. We’ll see .2-.3” water value (WV) of mixed precip between now and 4pm, followed by another .1” or so overnight. Wind will be SW 10 early, rising to WSW 20 midday and becoming SW 10-15 overnight.

Friday starts off with the snow level at 5500′, quickly dropping to 1500′ mid-morning and to the surface overnight as cold air moves in from the east. We’ll see a few flurries during the day with sunbreaks for no real snow accumulation, followed by .1-.2” WV overnight for maybe a couple inches of snow. Wind will be light and variable early, becoming E 15-20 by midday.

Saturday looks partly cloudy, with mid-level clouds and sun above. Temps will be in the low double-digits at 5000′ and in the low 20’s at 9000′. Hello inversion. We’ll see some flurries during the day, followed by more flurries overnight. At this point, it doesn’t look like we’ll see significant accumulation. Wind will be west 10-20.

Sunday brings flurries for much of the day, followed by heavier, warmer precip after 4pm. Temps will be sub-freezing at all elevations, warming above freezing at 5000′ sometime Sunday afternoon or evening, just in time for the precip. I suspect we’ll start with heavy, wet snow, and then see a switch to heavy sleet and freezing rain in the evening. No precip values yet, as a lot depends on the storm track. Wind will be W 30 for much of the day. Monday looks rainy on Mt. Hood.

Gorge Wind

Yep, it’s windy: 30 at Steven’s Locks and 42 at Rooster Rock. These easterlies will back off to light wind this afternoon as the offshore low driving them disappears. Friday starts with east wind in the low teens, picking up to E 35-45 in the afternoon as cold, high-pressure air crawls southward from Canada. We’ll see east wind at 30-40 on Saturday and E 26-30, fading in the afternoon, most likely, on Sunday.

Gorge Weather

Yep, it’s windy: 30 at Steven’s Locks and 42 at Rooster Rock. These easterlies will back off to light wind this afternoon as the offshore low driving them disappears. Friday starts with east wind in the low teens, picking up to E 35-45 in the afternoon as cold, high-pressure air crawls southward from Canada. We’ll see east wind at 30-40 on Saturday and E 26-30, fading in the afternoon, most likely, on Sunday.

Gorge Weather

First, I have to say that I’m disappointed in how much the models have changed from the original ass-freezing cold snap scenario. Yes, it’s still going to get cold, but not nearly as cold as originally predicted. Figures. It’s almost March, right? Anyway, today will be cloudy with temps in the mid-30’s early and low 40’s in the afternoon with easterly breezes. We’ll see a chance of sprinkles between now and 4pm, with mostly-dry weather overnight.

Friday starts with temps in the upper 30’s, holding all day, and then dropping below freezing after sunset. Light east wind completes that picture. We’ll probably have low clouds all day, but we might see some sunbreaks. At this point, it looks like the moisture moving in Friday night will be mostly south of us, but a small shift in the setup could leave us with some snow on the ground by Saturday morning.

Saturday looks cloudy with mid-level clouds. Temps will be in the mid-20’s in the morning and upper 20’s in the afternoon. We may see some flurries Saturday night.

Sunday looks complicated, with the weather models all over the place. The general scenario is cold air at all elevations in the morning followed by cold air at the surface with warm, wet air moving over the top in the afternoon. Add continuous precip to that for a messy weather day in the Gorge.

At this point, I suspect we’ll see light flurries from 4am Sunday through 4pm Sunday, for no significant accumulation. From 4pm Sunday through 4am Monday, we’ll see .2-.4” water value fall as snow that switches to sleet and freezing rain Sunday evening, and then plain-old-rain by early Monday morning, for 1-2” of the white stuff that turns to slush by Monday morning.

As always in these scenarios, models are all over the place with the dissipation of the cold air. That said, the GFS sounding has the Gorge at 21ºF at 7pm Sunday, and the 12k surface temp model keeps us sub-freezing through Sunday night. That’s not a great sign for just-rain Sunday.

Starting Monday morning, things just look wet for a couple of days.

Road and Mountain Biking

The Gorge 400 west out of Wyeth was riding great yesterday – perfect dirt. I love that trail. Such big trees. So much moss. So many bright green ferns. I bet Syncline is fine too. Not sure about Post. The road should be nice today too, with temps above freezing a light east breeze kicking around.

The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

There’s pickup rugby tonight at 3:30 at Henkle Middle School.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira