Categories
Forecast

Friday. 12/13. Mt. Hood snow forecast, Gorge wind, and maybe another Arctic blast?

Please support this forecast by clicking on the photo of the forecaster!

This is Temira.
Your forecaster. Click on her to donate. Thank you!

Thank you for using this forecast. Please tell your friends about it! And if you or your friends think this service is awesome/useful/saves you gas money/makes your life more fun, make a donation by clicking on my photo above. Is more fun worth $50/year? $20/year? Donate what it’s worth to you (and thank you!), but $12 minimum gets you on the email list (with occasional giveaways) for a year. Thank you for your support, and have fun today!

Random Morning Thoughts

I know you folks love the Hood River Weather website. And if you don’t, you should! December is pledge drive month over there, so please make a donation by clicking through, scrolling below the chat room, and clicking on the PayPal button. Thanks for supporting this great local service, brought to you by a nice guy named Larry.


Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Yesterday I mentioned something that frustrates me about forecasting: day-to-day inconsistency in precip amounts in the models. Blowing the forecast frustrates me more. I thought for sure we’d see all snow, all the time at 5000′ overnight. No such luck. It was a mix of snow and freezing rain up there, meaning the 3” of new snow is nothing more than base-building sludge. Ride the groom today for the best conditions.

It was cloudy early, but the sky has already cleared, and should remain that way today. Expect the free air freezing level (FAF) to be at 5500′ this morning, dropping to 3500′ late this afternoon. Wind will be NW 30 early, dropping to NW 20 mid-morning and switching to NNW 25-30 late this afternoon.

Saturday may start off clear, but quickly becomes high overcast. The FAF will be around 10,000′ all day. Wind will be W 20 in the morning, slowly picking up to W 30 in the afternoon and evening. We may see a few sprinkles overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Sunday starts off cloudy, with a few sprinkles possible. The sky will clear mid-morning or early afternoon. The FAF will be 10,000′ all day with wind out of the west at 30-35.

Next chance for precip is Wednesday into Thursday, and it looks like it will fall as snow.

Plain Old Local Weather

I was pretty mad last night when it started snowing in Bingen at 4pm. I predicted freezing rain, and I wanted freezing rain. And then I got freezing rain, and I was bummed, because scary things happen on the road during freezing rain.

We seem to be done with that, and can expect low clouds and above-freezing temps in the Gorge the next few days. Upper 30’s today and tomorrow, upper 40’s on Sunday, and colder on Monday.

If you liked this last Arctic blast, keep an eye on the end of next week, as models are predicting a repeat. Long way out to be trusting models, but it’s worth watching.

Gorge Wind Forecast

Those Liquid Force folks were out testing kites again yesterday in sub-freezing weather. If you need a kite that performs well when coated with ice, buy a Liquid Force? We’ll see light wind this morning, picking up to W 10-15 this afternoon. Saturday starts with east wind at 10-15, switching to west wind at 5-10 in the evening. Sunday looks light.

Road and Mountain Biking

I took my Canfield Brothers Yelli Screamy (the best 29’er hardtail EVER) out yesterday for a road ride. I couldn’t find my clipless pedals, so I rode with (the best pedals EVER) my Canfield Crampon flat pedals for an hour. End of shameless promotion of my favorite bike EVER.

I guess my point is that you don’t need a cross bike to go riding right now. The roads are full of gravel, but a hardtail 29’er will save you. As for other places to ride, well, with temps going above freezing, trails are going to be very muddy. Give them a few days, and maybe try riding Post, which should stay frozen under the trees for a bit.

And remember, there is no gravel on the Petersburg Loop in The Dalles.


The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Mt. Hood Meadows has a free ski and snowboard demo day on Sunday.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

Categories
Forecast

Thursday. 12/12. .Gorge freezing rain. Mt. Hood snow. Free demos at Meadows Sunday. McConkey movie tonight.

Please support this forecast by clicking on the photo of the forecaster!

This is Temira.
Your forecaster. Click on her to donate. Thank you!

Thank you for using this forecast. Please tell your friends about it! And if you or your friends think this service is awesome/useful/saves you gas money/makes your life more fun, make a donation by clicking on my photo above. Is more fun worth $50/year? $20/year? Donate what it’s worth to you (and thank you!), but $12 minimum gets you on the email list (with occasional giveaways) for a year. Thank you for your support, and have fun today!

Random Morning Thoughts

Anyone interested in a job? I need a writer. A communicator. A skier or snowboarder. Wed-Sun, 2-9:30pm at Meadows. You’d be answering switchboard, recording the snowphone, and updating the conditions page on the website. Email me a paragraph containing the proper use of all variations of the homophones of “your”, “its”, “to”, and “there” to apply.


Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
Thursday
Friday
Saturday

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Know what frustrates me most about forecasting? When the models’ predictions of precip amounts change dramatically from one day to the next. Yesterday’s runs showed .8-1” WV tonight, and now they show .3-.4”. That’s great if you’re worried about a low-elevation ice storm, but not great if you’re looking for powder skiing.

Anyway, today starts out warm and dry and clear on Mt. Hood, with clouds moving in quickly and precip starting around 4pm. The snow level will be 7500′ early, dropping to 3500′ around noon or a bit later. We’ll see .3-.4” water value (WV) between 4pm today and 4am Friday, for 3-5” of new snow. Wind will be SW 30 early, turning to NW 25-35 in the afternoon.

Friday starts with lingering flurries, becoming clear midday. The snow level will be 4500′ early, 3500′ midday, and then the free air freezing level, under clear sky, will rise to 8,000′ or so overnight. We’ll see 1” or less of snow on Friday. Wind will be WNW 20 for much of the day, becoming more northerly in the evening.

Saturday looks partly cloudy to start, becoming cloudy midday, with the free air freezing level around 10,000′. No precip. Wind will be NW 15 early, W 20 midday and W 35 in the afternoon. Sunday starts off clear and warm, with the FAF at 10,000. A few sprinkles may move in midday. Winds look strong: W 30-40.

Next significant round of precip arrives during the middle of next week.

Plain Old Local Weather

Oh dear, oh dear. This is a difficult forecast, and a potentially very ugly forecast. Let me say that I am not the only one hedging this morning. NOAA’s forecast discussion contained the phrase “LOW CONFIDENCE” (they write in all-caps) multiple times. As for my confidence, I am 80% sure that we’ll see freezing rain this afternoon.

If the clouds do not burn off in the Gorge today, and the clouds do not clear in the desert, and the east gradient does not decrease significantly, and the temps do not warm above freezing here and east of here by 4pm, we are going to see freezing rain in the Gorge this evening. Under the worst-case scenario, you can expect freezing rain to last through the wee hours of Friday.

Fortunately, there’s not a lot of precipitable water with this system, meaning we’re only going to see a tenth of an inch or two of ice, enough to cause hazardous driving this evening, but not enough to destroy our already-damaged forests.

Yuck.

Anyway, Friday should warm up above freezing by mid-morning, at the latest, with low clouds in the Gorge and light west wind. Saturday and Sunday looks partly cloudy and above freezing.

Gorge Wind Forecast

We’ll start off with strong east wind today, with 26-30 at Steven’s Locks and 40-45 at Rooster. The wind will fade during the day. As noted above, it’s a difficult forecast on the timing of the switch to west wind. Models say 1-4pm, but I think they’re being overly optimistic. Middle of the night, maybe?

Friday brings westerlies at 13-15 and Saturday and Sunday bring west wind of some sort, to be determined.

Road and Mountain Biking

I really want to ride my bike, but it’s too cold for me. I get chilly going downhill. I did see people riding bikes in Post Canyon yesterday. It’s frozen solid. So, if you want to ride slightly snowy, frozen-solid trails, Post is the place!


The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Swing by Andrew’s tonight for the ski documentary “McConkey”. Coming up Sunday, Meadows has the winter ski demo day. Free demos.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira