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12/23 Forecast



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Good morning! You have two days left to finish your Christmas shopping. Haven’t bought me anything yet? That’s okay. I bought myself new skis, new bindings and a new beacon, so I don’t really need anything. It’s very nice of you to think of me, however. =)

If you’d like to go windsurfing or kiting this morning, feel free. The gradient is east .14 and it’s blowing in the mid thirties at Rooster and will be blowing in the upper twenties at Stevenson. The east gradient will pick up tomorrow and back off a bit on Sunday, but still be enough for getting on the water on Christmas Day.

If you’re a surfer, it’s looking like there may be a short window on the coast of east to southeast wind Friday into Saturday with a 15 foot swell.

If you’d prefer a more seasonal sport – like riding the snow instead of looking at it while freezing on the river or ocean – Mt. Hood can help you out. Unfortunately, the north-to-south oriented jet stream is sending the goods to California instead of to Oregon, but that will change next week. Mammoth only had 4-6” of snow today, so I feel a little better, but they got 11 to 17 feet out of this storm cycle. Can you imagine if that snow had fallen on our mountain? Wow…

Today on Mt. Hood we’ll have a few snow flurries this morning with partly cloudy to cloudy skies before 2pm. After that, the snow stops completely for a mellow night on the hill. Winds today will be at 15-20 out of the south with the snow level around 4500 feet.

Friday during the day looks dry on Mt. Hood, thankfully, as temperatures at 5000’ will be between 33 and 36 degrees. Winds during the day will be out of the south at 20-25. We’ll see precipitation on Mt. Hood between 4pm Friday and 4am Saturday. At this point, it looks like snow levels will be at 5500-6000 feet, for a mixed precipitation event of some sort. Total water value with this weak system looks to be around .25”.

The precipitation should stop by 4am Saturday, and won’t start up again until 10pm or so. Temperatures will be above freezing at 5000’ on Saturday, with highs around 33-35 degrees and cloudy skies. Winds Saturday will be SW at 15-20, increasing to SE 20-25 after 4pm.

Temperatures drop overnight Saturday, and snow begins falling around midnight. A few inches fall during the day Sunday, then precipitation picks up around 4pm, for a total of 8-10” between 4am Saturday and 4am Sunday. Water value equivalent will be .75-1”. Winds start out at WSW 10-15, Sunday morning, rapidly building after 4pm to WSW 30-40+.

Looking ahead to next week, the jet stream takes aim at the Oregon-Washington border (finally), sending storm system after storm system through the PNW. Expect very strong winds on Mt. Hood as upper level lows pass directly north of the mountain on Monday night and then again during the day on Wednesday. Okay, that’s a long ways out, but that’s what the models are showing at this time. Next week will be a “ski Mt. Hood Meadow, it’ll blow you away” kind of week. Yippee!!!

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

p.s. If you find this report useful, entertaining, or just want to recognize all the hard work that goes into it, please take the time to make a donation by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. For a suggested donation of $10, I’ll add you to the email version of this list ‘til November 2011, putting you in the running for cool prizes donated by the weekly sponsors.

Categories
Forecast

12/22 Forecast



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Good morning!

Good morning, and happy second day of winter to you! Wintry, cloudy, mix preicipation kind of weather continues this week in the Gorge. As a matter of fact, the near-freezing temperatures will continue through Sunday morning, giving us a cold, wet, sloppy mix of frozen and partially frozen water falling form the sky until the end of the weekend. We’ll see a couple of inches today and then trace amounts tomorrow, and an unknown situation on Saturday into Sunday, due to model uncertainties.

Yes, a white Christmas is looking likely in the Gorge.

Same goes for the mountains.

But before I get into the forecast, I want to ask all of you to mentally direct the jet stream over our heads. Right now it’s slamming into California (where Mammoth has received 15 feet of snow since last Friday) and then heading straight up the coast. That means we’re getting brushed by weather systems, not hammered by them. No, don’t worry, changing the jet stream won’t bury the Gorge in snow, but it will bury the mountain.

Okay, during the day today, the mountain will see snow flurries and fog. Another reason to move the jet stream is that it will limit fog on Mt. Hood. We’ll get 2-3” of snow today, mostly falling before 7pm, with winds at 10-20 out of the southwest.

Tomorrow brings some light snow flurries midday, with 2” or so of accumulation. Winds will be out of the SSW at 10-15.

Friday morning looks dry on the hill, with above-freezing temperatures and south winds at 15-20. There is a chance the storm track will shift far enough east to bring rain or snow to Mt. Hood, but that looks unlikely at this point.

At this point, the weekend forecast is uncertain. Models are all over the place with the storm track. Some put it far enough off the coast to keep the Coast Range very wet and the Cascades dry, and some models move it far enough inland to drench (or bury, depending on temperatures) the Cascades as well.

Mammoth Mountain sucks for stealing our La Nina dumping. 15 feet in 4 days. That’s just not fair! Come on Mother Nature… send that stuff our way!

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

p.s. If you find this report useful, entertaining, or just want to recognize all the hard work that goes into it, please take the time to make a donation by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. For a suggested donation of $10, I’ll add you to the email version of this list ‘til November 2011, putting you in the running for cool prizes donated by the weekly sponsors.