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11/29 Mt. Hood snow, Gorge wind, and those unreliable weather models


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Thank you to all of you for using this forecast and for supporting it! Remember that although it’s free for you to use, it’s not free for me. I put a lot of time into giving you an accurate forecast, and I pay for the hosting on this website. If you find it valuable, please take the time to make a donation to support what I do. Your generosity helps keep this going for everyone. I also send an email version of this forecast. Make a $12 or larger donation, and you’re on the email list for a year. No more dealing with the twice-yearly pledge drive, and you’ll also have a chance to win prizes from the sponsors. Thank you again for your support!










Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a
Thursday
Friday
Saturday

We start off today with news I forgot yesterday. All the kayakers heard the word through the pdxkayaker grapevine, but you didn’t hear yet, maybe… The Lower-Lower White Salmon, aka, the DownLow, has a big river-wide log just below Steelhead Falls, essentially rendering that section of river closed and unrunnable. Open for just a few weeks, and now gone. Maybe next week’s high water event (hint at the upcoming forecast) will clear it back out.

In other news, the Forest Service just approved Timberline’s bike park. There’s a 45 day comment period, during which someone(s), likely Crag Law Center, may file lawsuits. Hopefully nobody will, and our bike park will be approved and our local dollars will stop heading north to Whistler. (Oops. Did I just get political? Sorry.) More information coming soon on how to write letters of support and where to send them.

In other news, you missed a scintillating trails meeting last night. Not much to report there…

For wind news, the huge east gradients continue in defiance of my prediction that they’d decrease. We’re at E .28 this morning, with 30+mph at Stevenson and Rooster. If it weren’t 36 degrees outside, I’d consider taking my new Starboard Quad 71 (thanks, Cyber Monday shop-at-home Big Winds) for a ride, but it’s cooooold and I’m a wimp! East gradients continue tomorrow.

In the snow forecast, Mt. Hood is messing with me this morning. All the models say the snow level and freezing level will be around 6500′. However, it’s currently 32 at 5200′ and snowing. If there wasn’t much precip coming in today, this wouldn’t be a problem. However, there’s almost an inch on the way, and that means getting it right is important. With SSW flow, I would be surprised if this stays snow all day. I’m going to call alternating rain and snow below 6500′, with .9” water value by 4pm (heaviest around 1-4pm), giving us 2-3” of snow at 5000′. Another .6” WV falls by 4am Friday, for another 1-3” of snow down low. Total snowfall above 6000′ should be in the 6-10” range. Wind today will be SSW 20-30 for much of the day.

According to the (apparently not so reliable) models, tomorrow starts off with the snow level around 6000′, dropping to 5000-5500′ at 10am. There won’t be much precip during the day, maybe .1” WV by 4pm, but what falls should be snow, for another 1” or so. Another 1.2” falls Friday night through 4am Saturday, and that should fall as wet snow. Call it 5-7” of wet new snow at 5000′, with more higher up. The wind will be SW 15-25 early Friday, rising to SW 30-40 by 10am and holding all day.

Saturday starts off with new snow on the ground and flurries falling from the sky. The freezing level will be 5000′ at 4am, dropping to 4500′ by 10am. Only a trace of snow will fall during the day, with sunbreaks. Another round of snow starts overnight, for .4” WV by 4am Sunday, for 3-4” of new snow overnight. Wind will be SW 25-35 all day.

Sunday looks snowy. The snow level will be at 3500′ early, falling to 2000′ around 4pm. Snowfall picks up around 4am, for .9” WV by 4pm, giving us 8-11” of new snow during the day, followed by flurries overnight. However… and this is important… the track of this system gives innocuous weather early, but as soon as the low moves east of Mt. Hood, all hell will break loose in the wind department. It’ll be SW 10-15 in the morning, rising to 20-25 midday. Then the wind jumps to WNW 45-50 around 1pm, likely causing chairlift issues.

In the long-range forecast, Monday looks cold with snow flurries. Tuesday and Wednesday look very warm and wet. Break out the palm trees, Mai Tais and beach chairs, because Mother Nature is going tropical. Kayakers, get ready!

Have an awesome day today!

Temira

Categories
Forecast

11/28 Mt. Hood snow/rain, Gorge wind, and other stuff to do around here.


The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.

Thank you to all of you for using this forecast and for supporting it! Remember that although it’s free for you to use, it’s not free for me. I put a lot of time into giving you an accurate forecast, and I pay for the hosting on this website. If you find it valuable, please take the time to make a donation to support what I do. Your generosity helps keep this going for everyone. I also send an email version of this forecast. Make a $12 or larger donation, and you’re on the email list for a year. No more dealing with the twice-yearly pledge drive, and you’ll also have a chance to win prizes from the sponsors. Thank you again for your support!










Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

It doesn’t look terrible, weather-wise, today. But if you want to play outside, do it early. Looks like the rain will start around 1pm. Tomorrow’s best weather will be in the afternoon, if at all. Friday midday looks decent. In wind news, the gradient is SuperSized this morning: -.30 from Portland to The Dalles. That should give Trudy, Rich, Laura and Larry another chance to sail 3.0 at Dalton, Rooster, or Stevenson. The easterlies back off to 22-25 tomorrow.

Tonight at 5pm, it’s the HRC trails meeting at the OSU extension office. On Saturday at 9am, WTA and CAMBA have a work party at Syncline, and on Saturday at 6pm the DimWits have a night ride (complete with bonfire) in Cascade Locks.

In mountain news, I’d like to give no news, because that’d be good news. Sadly, it’s another … interesting… week on Mt. Hood. The freezing level is somewhere around 9000′ this morning. It will; fall to 6500′ by 4pm and 6000′ by 7pm. Rain starts around noon, for .3” by 4pm and light showers overnight. Wind will be SSW 25-30 this morning, rising to SW 40-50 by noon.

Thursday sees another round of rain on Mt. Hood. The snow level will be 6250′ early, rising to 7000′ by 7am. Rain starts around 4am, for .5” total by 4pm and another .3” overnight. Most of that overnight rain will fall early Friday morning. Wind on Thursday will be SW 40-45 early, rising to SW 45-55 by 7am and holding during the day.

Friday’s snow level starts at 6500′, and drops to 5500′ around 7pm. It will rain in the morning, or sprinkle, anyway, for .2” by 4pm, with the afternoon looking fairly dry. Another .2-.3” falls after midnight, and that might just give us 1-2” of snow.

Saturday morning sees the snow level at 5000′, but models are not agreeing on precipitation amounts. Models do predict WSW wind at 35-40 on Saturday.

Sunday looks cold and snowy. However, depending on the storm track, it could be really, really windy in the afternoon. Monday also looks snowy. Tuesday and Wednesday look downright tropical, minus the palm trees. I’m talking tropical wet season, not tropical as in “let’s hang on the beach.” Maybe tropical as in “let’s drink a Mai Tai and watch the rain fall.” I see Mai Tai cupcakes in my future…

Have an awesome day today!

Temira