Forecast - The Gorge is my Gym

Good afternoon,

Once again, I’m having a day off, so the forecast is late. It hasn’t changed for the better, unfortunately. Is this a Pineapple Express? Well, the jet stream is certainly coming from just above the tropics, but it’s not quite a Pineapple Express. Maybe a mango express

Snow and/or freezing rain and/or sleet begin in the Gorge around 4pm today. With a .21 east gradient in place, it should stay cold enough for snow until tomorrow morning, at least. Light precip is all we’ll see until about 1am, and then moderate precip starts. Warm air should mix to the surface by noon tomorrow, likely earlier, ending the frozen precipitation and giving crazy windsurfers a chance at some mid-winter westerlies. We’ll see another chance for Gorge westerlies on Thursday afternoon.

On the mountain, the picture is not pretty. The rest of today looks cloudy, with the wind increasing to SSW 20-30. Snow levels stay below the passes until 10pm or so, and then the snow level will be at the surface in the Gorge and at 4000’ or so in the mountains. Total precipitation between now and 4am Wednesday will be .25-.5” for 4-5” of snow in the mountains.

By 10am tomorrow (Wednesday), the snow level will be around 5500’ during the day, rising to 7000’ early Thursday morning. Total precip from 4am tomorrow to 4am Thursday will be 2-3” of water value. I think we’ll see wet, wet snow at the base of Meadows with rain likely at HRM base. Total snowfall will be in feet above 6500’ and in the 4-6” range down low. Winds tomorrow do not look pretty, as an upper low tracks across Washington State. SW winds at 45-55 at 4am build to WSW 60-70 by 10am, decreasing to WSW 45-50 in the evening (as if that’s much of a decrease). Timberline is going to get hammered by the wind (and poor Skibowl will get hammered by the rain), but Meadows may be slightly protected from the southerly cant of these strong winds. Maybe.

Thursday looks equally bad, with the snow level starting at 7000’, dropping to 6000’ during the day, and rising back up to 7000’ in the evening. Early morning winds will be WSW 50-60, going to SW 40-50 by 1pm, and switching to a brutal W 40-50 (can you say “bye-bye quads”?) by 7pm. Total water value on Thursday will be at least 1.5-2”, coming in the form of r**n.

The snow level falls to 5000’-5500’ by 4am Friday, rising again Friday afternoon. Winds Friday morning will be WSW 35-40, rising to WSW 40-45 in the afternoon. Total water value on Friday looks like .5” or so, but that’s likely to change given the fact that the jet stream will be pointed directly at the Northwest.

Flow switches to NW on Saturday, for colder temperatures. Sunday is too far out to tell.

Boaters should see significant rises in river levels over the next few days for some insane whitewater time.

*sigh*

Have a great afternoon!

Temira

Good afternoon,

Sorry for the delayed forecast, but today is my day off. I slept in and that’s all I have to say about that. As compensation, you get a paradox from NOAA’s forecast today: “Wet weather looks to continue beyond the extended forecast.” Hmmm.

So much for clear, cold and calm today. Tomorrow morning actually looks clear, cold and calm, until about 1pm when clouds move in. Light precipitation starts around 10pm, with .25”- .5” of water value falling by 4am for 4-5” of new snow by Wednesday morning. The snow level starts at 3000’ and rises to 5500’ by 7am. Winds tomorrow will be light, increasing to SSW 25-20 by 7pm, rising to SW 40-50 by 1am.

The picture gets ugly Wednesday morning. The snow level will be at 5000-5500’ until 8pm, for a wet day. After 8pm, the snow level rises to 6000-6500’. Heavy precipitation falls from 1am to 10am, with 1.5” of water value in that time period. Precip backs off a little midday, becoming heavy again from 1pm Wednesday through 4pm Thursday. Total water value from 4am Wednesday through 4am Thursday will be approximately 2”. Winds on Wednesday start out WSW 50-60, holding all day, and becoming WSW 40-50 around 7pm. I expect we’ll see wet snow (aka snain) down low all day, switching to rain late in the afternoon.

Strong winds and unfavorable temperatures continue Thursday. We’ll see heavy precipitation from 4am to 4pm Thursday, becoming moderate afterwards. Total water value will be at least 1.5” from 4am Thursday to 4pm Friday. The snow level on Thursday starts off around 6500’, dropping to 6000’ by 4pm, and falling to 4500’ by 7am Friday. Winds on Thursday morning will be WSW 40-50, switching (for the worse), to W 40-50 by mid-afternoon. That switch to west winds will kill most lifts at Meadows.

At this point (and this is a long way out), it looks like we’ll see delicious powder falling from the sky Friday-Sunday.

The Gorge forecast for the next few days includes a lot of chaos. Strong east winds blow from now until late Tuesday night, switching to westerlies around 9am Wednesday morning. Temps stay below freezing in the Gorge until Wednesday morning, meaning we’re going to see snow, sleet and the evil and deadly freezing rain. We’ll see .25-.5” water value fall on the Gorge, for snow early and a slick mess later, with relief in sight with the warming temperatures Wednesday afternoon. It still seems like we’ll see I-84 close due to icy conditions on Tuesday night.

Enjoy.

Temira