Tuesday: Christmas eve brings a snowier forecast for Mt. Hood this week…

Meet Temira,
your Gorge and Mt. Hood forecaster

For almost 30 years, Temira (they/them) has been making the most of what the Gorge has to offer: riding river swell on a foil or windsurf board, carving fresh lines through the snow, and cycling all the gravel and pavement and trails. This is Temira’s playground, their gym… their life’s work.

That’s why in 2006, Temira took it upon themselves to create the most accurate, hyper-local weather forecasts possible. Inaccurate predictions had left too many fellow adventurers caught off-guard and in harm’s way. Temira was determined to change that. Today, Temira’s forecasts have become an essential resource for thousands of skiers, snowboarders, wind sports enthusiasts and travelers through the Gorge. With their guidance, you can plan ahead, time your sessions perfectly, and stay safer on the water, snow, and trails.

But the story doesn’t end there. Temira also authors the TATAS Facebook page – the Gorge’s premier source for microclimate forecasts. When winter storms, extreme heat, or other hazardous conditions (avalanches on SR-14 and I-84, for example!) threaten, this community lifeline becomes a vital resource for locals and visitors alike, helping to keep everyone safe.

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Good morning skier and snowboarders! We’re still in for a wild weather ride this week, but the news is more positive this morning. Models are trending colder with the incoming weather systems, meaning they’re shifting away from rain and towards snow. There are still brief periods in the forecast where the snow level bumps above 5000′, most of the time we’re looking at 5000′ or less. That said… the path of all these offshore lows is far from certain, and shifts in their location will result in shifts in the p-type. Generally speaking, we have a LOT of moisture headed this way, for tons of snow up high. It’s just a matter now of how much snow we get at 5000′ and below…. For today, the interquartile range through Saturday morning is 32-40” of new snow. Fingers crossed! One last thing before we dive in: Teacup was offered a matching year-end donation. If you’ve been thinking about contributing, do it now and double your impact!

For Tuesday morning, Christmas Eve Day, we started with rain but switched over to snow around 6am. The snow level will fall to 3000′ this afternoon and about 2000′ under clear sky tonight. We’re expecting 0.3” to 0.4” water equivalent (WE) today for 3-4” new snow. Wind: W 30 this morning, W 25 this afternoon, and WSW 15 overnight.

Wednesday will be dry and sunny to start. Clouds arrive quickly. Snow starts up around 1pm. We’ll see the snow level rapidly rise from 2000′ to 6000′ and then fall to 5000′ after midnight. With overnight temps forecast to rise to +4C (upper 30s) at 5000′, we’ll probably see a period of rain overnight. Before that… 0.1” WE prior to 4pm for an inch of new. 0.6” WE as wet snow prior to 10pm – call that 3-4” wet snow. 0.4” rain late followed by 0.4” in the transition back to snow for a couple inches more wet snow. Above 6500′, this will be all snow, 1.5” WE, for over a foot. Wind: WSW 15 in the morning, SW 20-35 in the afternoon, SW 40-60 in the evening, and WSW 65 after midnight.

That kind of wind, if it materializes, puts us in shutdown territory for Thursday. About 40% of the ensemble members are calling for that much wind, so it’s far from certain. It is almost certain we’ll see relatively strong west wind and significant moisture thanks to an atmospheric river. Models have the snow level around 5000′ early and slowly falling to 4000′ in the afternoon and 3000′ overnight. We’re looking at 1.0”+ WE during the day and 0.7” WE overnight. If the path of this low doesn’t budge from today’s model run, we’re going to pick up a foot and a half or more new snow. It’s just a matter of whether lifts will run. I suspect Meadows will be able to run Mt. Hood Express, as it’s so dang heavy that it can run in almost anything. Best case scenario: excellent storm skiing day!

Looking at Friday, we have another round of heavy precipitation with the snow level right in that 5000′ zone. Models do hint at a couple brief warmer periods. That said, there’s somewhere around 1.0” to 1.5” moisture headed this way, and much of that is now forecast to be snow. Wind: once again, 40% of ensemble members have too much wind to run lifts. The rest call for an epic storm skiing day.

Moving on to the weekend, we have increased uncertainty. Ensembles don’t agree on where to aim the atmospheric river fire hose. So, I’m going to hold off on making any predictions for now. It does look like we’ll see a couple days of dry, cooler weather to start next week before we (probably) head back into a snowy period. If y’all can cross your fingers that today’s GFS deterministic model predictions hold, that would be great. Have an awesome day on the slopes!

Gorge Wind Forecast

Hi friends! Models predictions have shifted quite a bit in the last 24 hours. Much of this is related to the track of incoming low pressure systems. At this point, I’m not putting any money on any wind forecasts beyond tomorrow (Christmas Day), and neither should you. For Tuesday, we start with pressures of 29.87/29.86/29.85 for weak onshore gradients. As a cold front swings through today, westerlies pick up. This isn’t ideal, and it’ll probably be right on the edge of enough. After 10am, we’ll see gusty 12-15 (with showers) west of The Dalles. Out east, you’ll find gusty 20-24 from Avery to Boardman. That lasts a few hours and drops in the afternoon. Strongest wind today will be between Avery and Rufus. River flow over the last 24 hours was 100-151kcfs, river temp is 45.32F, and high temp forecast is 48F with showers in the west and sun out east.

Another offshore low spins up on Wednesday. The day starts with light easterly gradients. Afternoon sees the wind pick up. By 1pm, we’ll have 35mph at Iwash and 25mph at Stevenson. This holds into the evening. However, it’ll be pouring rain. High temp: 41F. As of this morning, the deterministic GFS is bringing a compact low inland on Thursday. Ensembles are not all-in on this. If it happens, we’ll see a moderately strong west wind day. The rest of the week is similar – the path of incoming lows is not set. If they come inland within a couple hundred miles of us, we’ll see strong westerlies. If not, then not. We’ll be taking this day-by-day, as there’s really no agreement in the ensembles. Fingers crossed for today. Have fun if you get out!

Very basic Hood River weather forecast

Don’t plan your life around this. You really should read Temira’s Awesome Travel Advisory Service on Facebook for a detailed weather forecast.

Rain this morning tapers to showers after sunrise. Temps start in the low 40s and rise to the upper 40s. Light to moderate westerlies.99% chance of rainbows.

Wednesday will be briefly dry then soaking wet. Temps start in the upper 30s and rise to the low 40s. Calm wind early. Easterlies later. 99% chance of rainbows.

Thursday will be rainy. Temps start in the mid 30s and rise tot he upper 40s. Moderate westerlies.0% chance of rainbows.

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Cycling Update

Trails have been a mix of frozen, hoar-frost (unrideable), and freeze-thaw. When it’s wet and muddy, or when there are freeze-thaw conditions, please don’t ride, or you’ll do significant trail damage. Then peeps have to fix your mess rather than building new trails. Nobody wants that! Everyone wants new trails. Be a good steward, and pick a different activity

Remember: E-bikes are not allowed on USFS non-moto trails. They are allowed on moto trails.