1/16 Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

Posted by
 January 16, 2012

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Disclaimer: This forecast is for entertainment only. Don’t use it to plan your skiing, snowboarding or travel schedule, even though I do. Although I work for Meadows, this forecast is not endorsed by Meadows and does not reflect the views of the resort. Nobody pays me to write this report (unless you make a donation), so please share the link with your friends and help me increase my hits! Thank you!

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a

Good morning!

Just a quick heads up: Tonight is Hood River Rotary Night at Meadows. It’s only $10 to ski from 2-9pm, and the money benefits a great cause. You can pick up a ticket online and Meadows will donate an extra buck to the cause.

Today looks like an easy forecast compared to the rest of this week. We’ll see orographic snow flurries and sunbreaks on Mt. Hood along with strong wind. The snow level will be at 500’ or less. Accumulation during the day will be 1-2”, but snow will increase after 4pm for .6” water value or 7-9” of new snow by Tuesday morning. Wind today will be WNW 25-35 early, swinging to the W early afternoon and picking up to W 40-45, briefly, around 4pm and then dropping to W 25-30 in the evening. Bundle up, because temps will be in the single digits today with wind chill well below zero.

Heavy snowfall continues tomorrow, with .8-1.0” water value during the day. With the snow level around 500’, this means we’ll see 10-16” of dry, light new snow between 4am and 4pm Tuesday. Wind will be SW 40-50 early, picking up to 50-55, then swinging to WSW/W 40-50 by 10am and holding for the rest of the day. Snow will likely fall in the Gorge through late morning, before switching to rain and then back to freezing precip Tuesday night.

Very heavy snow continues Tuesday night, for 1-1.5” water value or 14-18” of new snow by Wednesday 4am. This is when things get tricky. The snow level will be 500’ or less, but a stable atmospheric profile after 4am (similar temps at all elevations) will make for fairly wet, heavy snow/graupel with the possibility of freezing rain between 10am and 1pm. We’ll see very heavy precip rates through 4am Thursday, with .5”+ water value per 3 hour period. By noon, possibly later, we’re going to see a switch to rain as the snow level rises to 6500’. Wind will be SW 40-50 early, rising to WSW 50-60+.

Things get really tricky on Thursday, with models showing the snow level at 5500-6500’. My gut instinct is that we’ll see rain at Meadows base area on Thursday and Friday morning, but models are going to have to come to a better consensus before I place any bets. Looks like we should be back to all snow by Friday afternoon, but that’s a very long way out to be forecasting. Long range models for next weekend show dumping snow on Saturday and then complete chaos on Sunday as a low pressure system swings right over the top of Mt. Hood. But that’s way too far out to be placing bets. It just makes for interesting conversation.

As for snow/rain/freezing rain in the Gorge, I still think Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon is going to be a total s**tshow. More details to come…

Have a great day today!


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