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I spent some extra time looking at additional models this morning, as this is a powerful system headed our way, and I wanted extra input. After careful consideration, I’m sticking with yesterday’s call of mixed precipitation today, although I supposed there’s a chance we could get really lucky and stay with wet snow, but I wouldn’t bet a tray of brownies on that. The latest model runs show the freezing level at 3000′ at 7am, 5500′ at 11am, 6500′ at 2pm, 6000′ at 5pm and 2500′ at 8pm. I think the freezing level will drop more slowly than that, but the general idea is right. Wind on Mt. Hood will be SW 40-60 at 7am, 50-80 at 11am, 50-70 at 2pm 65-75 at 5pm and 45-50 at 8pm. The SW wind doesn’t tend to hit Meadows lower mountain super hard, so you can probably knock 20-30% off those windspeeds for lower slopes. Timberline will likely take the brunt of this one. At either resort, it should still be windy enough to make a mess of things. Little Skibowl, luckily, is a bit protected from the wind.
Back to the precip, we’ll see .7-.8” water value (WV) by 5pm, and that’s going to be a mix of snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain. We’ll see very heavy precip between 5pm and midnight, for another 1” WV, half of which will fall as a wet mix, and half of which will fall as snow for 4-6” of new.
The snow level will be down to 500′ by midnight, rising to 1000′ by 2pm Tuesday. Another .3” WV falls by 4am Tuesday, for 3-4” of snow, followed by .4” WV by 4pm Tuesday for 4-6” of new light powder. Tuesday wind will be SW 30-35 early, picking up to 35-40 by 2pm.
Snow flurries fall Tuesday night into Wednesday for less than 2” of new. The snow level will be 500′ early, 2000′ at 1pm, 4000′ at 4pm and 5500′ by 10pm. We’ll see a couple inches of new on the ground in the morning, followed by cloudy skies as the bulk of the storm stays north of us during the day (although that’s subject to change, as models are disagreeing). Wind on Wednesday will be SW 25-30 early, rising to 30-35 in the evening.
Thursday looks crappy, as the freezing level will be 5500-6500′ during the day, with lots of precip and wind in the 40-60 range.
If you want to go windsurfing, there are east winds this morning, but it’s not going to be super consistent, and it’s going to die as the low pressure system moves up the coast. Tomorrow looks more promising, with westerlies in the 23-26 range in the eastern Gorge in the afternoon.
Have a nice day today. Enjoy the storm.
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