As I’ve said many times recently, I do love me some excitement in the forecast. What I’m not so keen about is uncertainty, and today’s model runs have thrown a lot of uncertainty into Wednesday’s forecast. But first, let’s talk about today, Tuesday, my favorite day of the week. No… actually, let’s talk about yesterday: Mt. Hood Meadows received 7” of snow yesterday before the precip turned to rain. All-in-all they received 3.3” of water value yesterday, far above the model predictions. That tends to happen in these atmospheric river setups. As of this morning, it was still too warm for snow at the base of the ski areas, and that’s not going to change until late tonight. Continued after the chart.
 |
4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today 6000′–>8000′–>1500′ |
 |
 |
|
 |
 |
| Tomorrow 1500′–>??? |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| The Next Day ???–>2000′ |
|
 |
|
|
|
Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
The snow level will be around 6000′ this morning, rising steadily to 8000′ by 4pm, then dropping to 2000′ around 10pm after the bulk of today’s moisture moves through. We’ll see .4-.6” water value (WV) in the form of sprinkles through 4pm. The next system hits around 7pm, bringing 2” WV, most of which will fall before midnight as rain We’ll see a couple inches of snow at the back end of this system as the snow level drops to 2000′. Wind today will be WSW 55 early, becoming W 55 mid-morning and rising to W 65 through midnight, fading just a little bit after midnight.
Donate and keep the forecasts coming
See below for details.
Wednesday morning starts out clear or partly cloudy with the free air freezing level around 1500′. Clouds increase during the day and precip starts late in the afternoon. Here’s where things get complicated: yesterday’s model runs had us on the warm side of this storm (6500′ snow level) Today’s runs have us on the cold side (less than 5000′ snow level). As of this morning, here’s my best guess: we’ll see 1” moisture on the cold side of this system, for 6-8” of dense snow between 7pm Wednesday and 4am Thursday. Wind will be WNW 40 early, fading throughout the day and ending up at SW 15 overnight.
Thursday morning sees us transition to the warm sector of this system, for 1.5” water value of mixed rain, freezing rain, sleet and maybe some snow. It’s really quite hard to predict: the sounding forecast has the temp right at freezing between 500′ and 6500’… usually this ends up with freezing rain, but it may be one of those days where we don’t know what will happen until it happens. The precip Thursday looks to end around 10am, with clearing to follow and the freezing level at 2000′. Wind Thursday will be W 25 early, fading to light and variable in the afternoon. As of right now, the weekend looks dry.
Support the forecast!
Thank you for using this forecast. Does it save you time, gas money, or help you have more fun in your life? Make a donation! Get your forecast here for free or donate and get on the mailing list for year-round wind forecasts and ski season snow forecasts. Just click on my photo to donate via PayPal or credit card. The email isn’t $99/year. Not $50/year. No, just $12.34 or more gets you on the list for 12 months, and sometimes there are cool prizes. Don’t PayPal? Send a check to Temira @ PO Box 841 in Hood River. Thank you for your support, and thank you for trusting my forecast.
Gorge Wind Forecast
Today’s going to be a windy one in the Gorge, and the gradients are already on the rise: .10 (pdx-dls) and .05 (dls-psc) at 6am. We’ll see a quick build to gusty 25-29 from Steven’s Locks to, oh, the edge of the dense low clouds, perhaps The Dalles. East of that, you can expect 30-40 after 10am, lasting until mid-afternoon. Don’t go out alone, do wear a helmet, and be cognizant of all the flotsam in the water from the recent rains. River temp is now 54 degrees.
Tomorrow starts with W 10-13, building to 13-16 midday (everywhere, pretty much), and then fades to light and variable conditions in the afternoon. Thursday looks like E 20-23 early (problematic for reasons in the Gorge weather forecast) with light and variable wind in the afternoon. Friday’s looking like E 28-32.
Random Morning Thoughts
Once again, I have a busy day scheduled. I was sitting here writing the forecast, stressing a little about the time, when I saw a rainbow outside my window. “I’ll just go outside and take a quick picture and go back to work,” I thought.
I stepped outside in my PJ’s. A warm breeze (pineapple-scented) flowed over my skin. A full rainbow arced overhead. Golden winter light illuminated the few yellow leaves still on the trees. I stopped and embraced the breeze with my bare arms and stared at the rainbow for a couple of minutes. I felt so much better having carved out those two minutes for rainbow viewing.
Life’s short. There’s never enough time. If you want time for the things you love, you’ll have to make it. You can start by giving yourself permission to stop and look at rainbows. Stopping to smell the roses is okay too. If you don’t give yourself permission to stop, you’ll never have a chance to be fully immersed in a beautiful moment. Take a moment today to stop and look at the rainbows. They’re awesome, and so are you. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s cloudy and showery out there this morning. The showers will dcrease through the afternoon and pick up again in the evening with heavy rain overnight. Temps will be in the mid 50’s all day long. Strong, possibly nuking wind. 100% chance of rainbows (I saw one at 7:19). Tomorrow looks partly cloudy in the morning with high clouds in the afternoon and rain in the evening and overnight. Temps will be in the low 40’s early and the low 50’s in the afternoon. Light wind. 13% chance of rainbows.
Thursday morning has the potential to get very… interesting… an easterly gradient driven by a cold pool in the desert and an approaching offshore low may pull enough cold air into the Gorge early Thursday morning for freezing rain and/or snow above 500′. It’s right on the border of rain v. something else, so… don’t panic. And it will warm up in the afternoon. So… for now, let’s call it heavy mixed precip or very cold rain Thursday morning. We’ll see clearing and highs in the mid-50’s Thursday afternoon with light east wind.
Thursday night looks cold enough to leave us with icy roads through Friday morning all the way down to river level. Be careful out there. Friday looks cooler and dry, possibly with a Nothing cloud.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
I have no news to report today in mountain biking world. We had .5” of rain in the last 24 hours, leading me to believe that it’s Syncline or nothing, unless you don’t mind damaging trails by riding in the mud. In road biking news, tomorrow looks okay: light wind and mostly dry. Friday looks icy. It also looks like we’re likely to lose the higher elevation trails on Thursday night, possibly for the season.
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear.
Temira approves. Click to join.
Upcoming Events
Coming up this evening, there’s pickup touch rugby at the fields next to Jackson Park at 5pm, Zumba at the Mt. Hood Town Hall at 6:30, community yoga at the Mosier Senior Center at 7pm, and meditation with the monks from Pacific Hermitage at 6:30pm at Yoga Samadhi. There’s another community meditation at Flow Yoga with Adi on Wednesday morning. Different traditions, same peaceful vibe. If you’re in Portland, the monks from Pacific Hermitage will be at Portland Friends of the Dhamma on Friday night.
Coming up next weekend, there are not-one-but-two work parties at Falls Creek, weather permitting. Come help reroute the trail off the roads and doubletrack. Meet at Backwoods Brewing in Carson at 8am both Saturday and Sunday.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
