I really, really, really thought we’d see more snow out of this system. NOAA was calling for 10-16 or more, and I thought that was optimistic, but I was sure we’d see 8-12” at 5000′. Nope. Meadows picked up 4-6” before the snow turned back to rain. Mid-mountain, however, is better, with a couple of feet of wet, soggy snow on the ground. For the rest of today… expect the snow level to be around 6000′ early (except in places like the Gorge, where the snow level is around 500′ right now), dropping to 2000′ this afternoon after the bulk of the moisture moves through and the sky clears. Maybe we’ll see an inch or two of snow, maybe not. Wind will be WSW 30 this morning, swinging to WNW 20 after this system moves through and turning NE overnight. Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 6000′–>2000′ |
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| Tomorrow <500' |
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| The Next Day 8000–>11,000′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
Tomorrow looks clear and cold and sunny with the free air freezing level (FAF) at 500′ or less. Wind will be NE 20 early, becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Expect a sunny day on Saturday, with a developing inversion. We’ll see above-freezing air between 2000′ and 8000′, with temps in the upper 30’s at 5000′. Wind will be S 10 all day.
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Sunday also looks clear and sunny, but warmer. The FAF will be around 10,000′ with temps in the mid 40’s at 5000′. Wind on Sunday will be SW 15. The next chance of precip is Monday night into Tuesday, and that seems likely to start as rain and switch to snow. After that, we head into a region-wide cold snap with no precip for several days, assuming the long-range models are correct.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
When I last checked the iWind a couple of hours ago, it was blowing 38 at Rooster Rock with merely a .10 (dls-pdx) gradient. That’s a lot of bang for the gradient buck. We’ll see those easterlies continue this morning, dropping to 13-16 this afternoon. The drop won’t last long, as the desert cold pool materializes overnight, giving us easterlies at 35-45 at Rooster tomorrow with temps right around freezing. Expect east wind at Rooster at 40-50 (and subfreezing) on Saturday and E 30-40 on Sunday. Brrrrrrr! Time to break out the windchill chart!
Random Morning Thoughts
OMG. Thanks a lot, Gmail. So, for the last few days, Gmail has bounced every single one of my bulk messages, in other words, my entire mailing list. So, I spent the last couple of hours switching the entire system over to GetResponse. This means a couple of things: if you are on the mailing list, you will want to add me to your contacts list. You will also need to drag the email out of your junk mail folder and tell your system that it’s important, probably more than once, to ensure you get it each day.
Having my system fall apart brought up a lot of anxiety for me. I, of course, want people to get their forecast. I take this seriously, and I also project expectations on to my subscribers. I imagine them sitting there getting frustrated and angry if this thing they’ve paid for doesn’t arrive.
I am pretty certain that’s not the attitude that my subscribers take. However, we all do this all the time. We project our worries on to other people, and assume that they will react in the worst way possible to situations. Expecting conflict from other people, we become anxious. Related to this is what’s known as ‘attribution error’ – when someone actually does something that influences us negatively, we attribute the action to their personality – that guy’s a jerk – rather than the circumstance – that guy ran into me because he slipped on that banana peel.
See if you can catch yourself making these errors. Are you stressing because you’re anticipating others’ imagined reactions. Are you labeling people because of their one-time actions? Notice these thoughts, and attempt to replace them with more realistic thoughts. If you can do this, your stress level will drop and you’ll be a happier, more awesome person. Promise. Have an awesome day (despite the fact that Mother Nature is clearly out to get all of us today…)
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
You know, I’m pretty good at the positive reframe. I can take something good out of most situations. But I’m going to say something here and now, on the record: This weather is disgusting – 35 degrees and pouring rain with wet snowflakes mixed in. And it’s snowing above 500′. Gross. Good thing I have a lot of reading to do for school and a heat pump at my house. You can expect this nastiness to continue through midday, when the rain should end, leaving us under… well, it’s hard to say. It’s so wet that we may end up under a Nothing. We may also see partly cloudy sky. It’s really hard to tell. Either way, NOAA says we’ll see temps in the upper 40’s this afternoon, but the temp has been dropping all morning (from 38 to 35 in the last couple hours). So, I dunno. Highs in the upper 30’s today? East wind. 4% chance of rainbows.
EXPECT ICY ROADS TONIGHT. Did I shout that? Yes, I did. It’s going to be treacherous out there this evening.
Tomorrow morning is a tough call. The sounding model says we’ll see clear sky, but the wet ground says we’ll see a Nothing. Let’s say Nothing early and sunshine later with temps in the low 30’s early and the low 40’s in the afternoon. East wind. No rainbows.
Saturday’s model run insists on clear sky, so let’s roll with that. Sunshine. Temps in the upper 20’s early (yup!) and the low 40’s in the afternoon. East wind. No rainbows. Sunday looks similar. Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, there’s a very good chance of snow early Tuesday morning and all day Tuesday. PUT YOUR SNOW TIRES ON.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Ok. It’s way too wet to ride. And, at the request of multiple trailbuilders, I’d like to remind you to stop and think before you ride this winter. Ask yourself this: “Was it below freezing last night? Is it above freezing now?” If the answer to both those questions is “yes”, do not ride any trails through clearcuts or other areas with sun exposure (Whoopdee, Syncline, and the Kleeway come to mind). You will do massive and long-lasting damage. Thanks for your help, and spread the word!
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Riverside Grill Thanksgiving Dinner
Enjoy Thanksgiving dinner at Riverside Grill at the Hood River Inn so you can play hard on Thanksgiving Day! Delicious plated dinners served from 11:00 am to 8 pm. Menu includes Thanksgiving Turkey dinner with yummy trimmings, Prime Rib, Columbia King Salmon or Vegetarian Thanksgiving, with appropriate side dishes. (Gluten-free or other dietary restrictions always happily accommodated!) Reservations are recommended. Call 541-386-4410 or visit www.riversidehoodriver.com for the complete menu. Happy Thanksgiving!
Upcoming Events
Tonight at 6:30pm, there’s Zumba at the Mt. Hood Community Center, Tai Chi at Our Savior Church in Bingen, and free yoga at Yoga Samadi (taught by Tish). There’s also kayak polo at 8pm at the Hood River pool. The HRATS, your local trail organization, has a fundraiser tonight at Kickstand Coffee starting at 6pm. Coming up tomorrow, there’s a work party on the new Enduro/Downhill section of the Whoopdee – 10am at the trailhead. There are work parties scheduled for both Falls Creek (8am, Saturday and Sunday at Backwoods Brewing) and Cooks Meadow (9am Saturday at Little John Snopark) this weekend, weather permitting. In an interesting twist, it will likely be much warmer at those work parties (at least at Cooks Meadow), than it will be down at river level.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
