Thursday: finally! snow for the mountains!

The best snow forecast for Mt. Hood. The best wind forecast for the Gorge.

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The Forecast

	4a-8a	8a-12p	12p-4p	4p-8p	8p-4a
Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
Thursday 3000′->4000′
Friday 4000′
Saturday 4000′->6500′

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

It’s going to be a wild ride over the next week to ten days. Massive snow. Massive rain. Maybe some more massive rainfall. A bit of snow, and then a cold snap. That snowpack – and we should get enough to get the resorts open – will be what we like to call “consolidated”. Think of it as a brick of ice under the snowpack for the whole winter. That’ll keep us going!

Thursday brings the start of the fun. A relatively weak weather system arrives mid-morning. The effective snow level (based on 850mb temps – it’ll probably be snowing at 0′ in the Gorge) will be 2500-3000′ during the day and 3500-4000′ overnight. About 0.1” water equivalent (WE) is forecast today for an inch of snow. Overnight, another 0.2” WE is forecast. Call that 2” more. Wind: W 10 this morning turns to SW 5-15 this afternoon and builds to SW 15-30 overnight.

The fun really gets going on Friday with intensifying precipitation. The snow level will be around 3000-3500′ all day. It’ll rise to 4000′ overnight. About 0.8” WE falls during the day as 7-9” new snow. Overnight, another 0.9” WE is forecast. Call that 8-10” of dense, somewhat heavy snow. Wind will be SW 15-30 early and will quickly build and turn to WNW 45-50. That’s blizzard conditions and will make for terrible driving conditions over the passes. The wind drops to W 35 in the afternoon and ramps up to WSW 30-55 overnight.

Intense snowfall continues on Saturday. Sometime in the evening or overnight, that’ll switch to mixed precip and then rain. The snow level will be 4000′ in the morning and will rise to 6500′ after midnight. In between, 850mb temps (5000′) slowly rise from -1/0C to 0/+1C (afternoon) and +2C (after midnight). During the day, about 1.4” WE is forecast. That’s going to be very dense snow. Call it 8-12”. In the evening, about 0.5” WE falls as Cascade Concrete. This may start to include snain and rain. After midnight, 0.6” rain is forecast. Wind: WSW 30-55 quickly turns to W 55 (blizzard strength). Afternoon wind falls to W 40 and turns to SW 20-30 ahead of the next system, and then swings to WSW 30-45 after midnight.

Torrential rain is forecast along with very strong wind on both Sunday and Monday. Over that 48 hour period, about 5-6” of rain falls atop the snow and consolidates it. It’s like a snocat, only different. Speaking of snow, the snow total prior to this will be 2-3.5 feet at 5000′. Given the very strong wind and orographic enhancement, I’d lean towards the higher end of that range. That said, models still disagree about the exact details. A brief break in the weather Tuesday (with temps in the upper 40’s in the mountains!) may give way to another round of heavy rain on Wednesday. After that, the weather turns colder. Significant snow is possible towards the end of next week, and temps should stay cold through next weekend. And… that should get our resorts open with a very, very solid base snowpack.

Gorge Wind Forecast

Easterlies today give way to wet westerlies over the next couple of days and then calm, wet weather. Thursday starts with pressures of 29.97/30.07/30.09 for gradients of 0.10 and 0.02. Easterlies were surprisingly strong at Iwash: 39mph to start. Stevenson: 22. Viento: 12. The wind fades at Iwash. Stevenson and Iwash land at 20-25 this afternoon. High temp: 35F with rain to the west and snow or snow/rain mix to the east. River flow yesterday was 100-151kcfs, river temp is 49F.

Wednesday starts with pressures of 30.16/30.24/20.26 for gradients of 0.08 and 0.02. Iwash (Rooster) was holding at 35-40 first thing this morning. Stevenson and Viento were at 10mph. Stevenson should pick up to 15-20 mid-morning before fading to 10-15 this afternoon. Rooster just fades as the day goes on and eventually lands around 10mph mid-afternoon. River flow yesterday was 92-144kcfs, river temp is 49F, and high temp forecast is 40F with sunshine in the windy zones.

Friday stats with easterlies at 15-20 at Stevenson and calm wind at Iwash. The wind switches quickly to W 20-25 at Iwash and rises to E 20-25 at Stevenson. Along with this comes a downpour. Sometime around sunrise or a bit after, the wind switches to west through the whole gorge. You’ll find gusty 18-22 west of The Dalles (and rain) and gusty 20-23 east of The Dalles. High temp: 44F. Saturday brings another round of gusty westerlies: 14-17 west of The Dalles and 22-26 to the east. After that, models are all over the place. If there is wind, you’ll have to head east to take advantage of it. Note: I’ll be gone starting Saturday. Given the massive precipitation amounts in the forecast, there’s going to be a lot of debris in the river. Be careful out there.

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Hood River Weather Forecast

Clouds this morning give way to light snow this evening and a mix of light snow and freezing rain overnight. Temps will be in the low-mid 30’s all day and will fall to the low 30’s overnight. Easterlies. No rainbows. Friday starts with either light mixed snow/rain or light freezing rain. Temps warm by mid-morning and bring just-rain. Heavy rain in the morning turns moderate and sticks around. Temps start near 30 and rise to the mid 40’s. East wind early. Moderate westerlies from midday on. 99.4% chance of rainbows. Saturday brings moderate rain all day. Temps start in the mid to upper 30’s and rise to the upper 40’s. Moderate westerlies. 28% chance of rainbows. Rain continues on Sunday. And Monday.

Looking for a complete Columbia Gorge forecast? Looking for more humor in your weather? Obscenities? You’re looking for my TATAS: Temira’s Awesome Travel Advisory Service on Facebook.

Local-ish Events

Please let me know of outdoor-related local-ish events. If you don’t tell me, I don’t know!

Regular weekly events:. NK Studio’s by-donation Tuesday morning yoga class is back. Ferment’s Tuesday night 4-mile walk/run is at 6pm. There’s meditation with monks at 5:15pm (an hour) and 6:30pm (30 minutes plus a talk) at Yoga Samadhi in White Salmon. The Tri Club is done for the season. At 7:15am on Wednesdays, there’s a run from the White Salmon Bakery. At 7am on Friday morning, there’s a run from Pine Street Bakery. On Fridays at 2:30pm, there’s a free meditation and stretching class at Yoga Samadhi. On Saturday at 9am, there’s a by-donation outdoor group fitness on the 2rd floor deck about Ferment Brewing.

Cycling

Regarding the trails in general: don’t ride in the mud. You’ll damage the trails. Don’t ride trails if it was below freezing the previous night and is above freezing when you want to ride. Ride gravel. Ride your trainer. Build trails. There are trail builders seeking extra hands on seven additional miles of trail on Whoopdee. Contact HRATS for more information. If you’re parking at Post Canyon, you will need a parking pass. Those can be purchased at many local shops or online.