Your forecaster.
Random Morning Thoughts
Gratitude Month, day 14: Today I am grateful to 2nd Wind for hooking me up in various ways over many years. Thanks, Pepi and Erica and 2nd Wind staff. So excited for my new skis!
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(Very Chatty) Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
I saved writing the snow forecast until the end this morning because it’s a fascinating one, at least starting tomorrow. Today, Thursday, looks pretty boring: the snow level starts at 6500′ and drops to 2500′ by 1pm when flurries start. We’ll see .1-.2” water value (WV) at most, giving us (most likely) just a trace of new up to an inch or two. Wind will be NW 15-20 today.
The sky should clear (briefly) overnight, allowing the freezing level to drop to 1500′ by Friday morning. The next system hits around 10am, with strong wind and lots of moisture. Now, this is where things get interesting: We’ll be in NW flow, but we’ll be on the warmer south side of this low, and models are insisting we’ll see a brief warmup with the snow level rising as high as 6000′ overnight.
So, we start with the snow level at 2000′ Friday morning around 10am when the precip starts. It holds at 2000′ through 4pm, and then rises to 5500-6000′ between 10pm and 1am, before falling to 2000′ on Saturday morning. Looking at the 700mb temps, I think it’s going to stay cold enough to remain snow, even if the temp touches freezing or just above. Between 10am Friday and 4am Saturday, we’ll see at least 1-1.5” WV, for 10-13” of new snow. Wind on Friday will be WNW 20 early, rising to W 40 around 4pm, W 50 at 7pm, and W 50-55 overnight.
Saturday’s models are in conflict over the amount of moisture we’ll see. The sounding model calls for clear sky. The precip model calls for 1” WV of orographic snowfall with the snow level around 1500′. I’m going to split the difference for now and call it .5” WV for 4-7” of new snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Wind on Saturday will be be WNW 45 early, dropping to WNW 35 midday and holding through the evening. Sunday looks clear and cold and windy.
As of yesterday morning when I spoke with the folks at Meadows, they were still okay with people hiking and skinning this weekend. Remember that once they start slope prep, hiking is done.
Now, I know we’re all excited about this blizzard, but the extended models are still showing us right in the path of a Pineapple-fueled jet segment starting next Tuesday. I hope they are wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Very wrong.
Plain Old Local Weather
It’s not a bad start to the day today – partly cloudy sky with a mix of high clouds and low clouds. The cloud variety we see this morning will be joined by some sprinkles this afternoon, likely just after noon. Not a downpour, mind you. Sprinkles. And rainbows. Tomorrow starts off dry, but a cold, wet, and windy downpour starts around 10am and continues through the evening. Saturday looks partly cloudy, cold and windy with a slight chance of showers. If you live in the upper valley, be prepared for a chance of snow Friday night and icy roads on Saturday morning.
Gorge Wind Forecast
Good morning wind Johnnies! It’s going to be a fun few days if you can stand the cold. A W .07 gradient starts the day today, and that will pick up as a low pressure system moves to the east side of the Cascades. Get yourself some 24-28 east of Mosier this afternoon. Strongest, steadiest wind should be at Doug’s/Rowena/Lyle and the Maryhill stretch of the river. Expect gusty 13-15 near Hood River.
Friday looks strongest in the morning, and strongest furthest east, with 25-29 at Arlington. On Saturday, get yourself another round of eastern Gorge 26-30. The eastern Gorge wind on Friday and Saturday should be accompanied by gusty 13-15 in the western Gorge.
Road and Mountain Biking
Go ride your mountain bike today, because tomorrow’s system is going to take out Post Canyon (mud), Whoopdee (mud), and Knebal/8-Mile (snow). And… next week is looking very, very wet, meaning Post isn’t coming back any time soon. As Chris V-T would say, “You need to ride your bike more.” Sage advice. Take it.
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.
Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events
Tonight is the NWAC fundraiser at the Mazamas Center in Portland. It’s also, apparently, HUMPfest in Portland. Tomorrow night, of course, is the annual Gala Fashion Show at the Hood River Inn, benefiting the Hood River Christmas Project. This is the biggest party of the year (500 people or so), and you don’t want to miss it. Tickets will sell out. They’re available at many downtown shops.
Coming up Saturday, Ranger Jimmy T invites you to celebrate the life of my old coffee buddy Charley LaVenture by working on Charley’s trail in Post Canyon. Meet at the trailhead at 9am. From 3-7 on Saturday, Dirty Fingers is having a bike swap and sale, so bring your used bikes over and see if you can’t earn some cash, just in time for ski season. Speaking of ski season, this weekend is Ski Fever at the Portland Expo Center.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
