Well, I can’t tell you that we’re going to get a bunch of snow this week, but I can tell you that it’ll be exciting to be up on Mt. Hood over the next several days! For today, dropping snow levels will give Mt. Hood another dusting, but it’s just not going to be what the model runs suggested over the last few days. For the rest of the week, rain and snow will alternate, with the rain amounts far exceeding the snow amounts. Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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Today 5500′–>500′ |
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Tomorrow 500′–>6500′ |
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The Next Day 6500′–>2000′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
For today, the snow level will be 5500′ early, falling to 500′-1000′ tonight, after the moisture moves through. Expect light snow this morning, flurries this afternoon, and clear sky overnight. Total precip will be .2-.3” water value (WV) this morning, for 2-3” of snow at 5000′, followed by another .1-.2” WV in the afternoon flurries, for another inch or two at best. Wind today will be W 20 early, jumping to NW 45 by mid-morning, and fading to NW 30 tonight. Total snowfall: 2-4”.
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Tomorrow starts off clear, but clouds move in early in the morning and precip starts around noon. The snow level will be 500′ early, 2000′ when the precip starts, and sadly, 6500′ when the heavy precipitation hits. We’ll see .2-.3” WV before the snow level rises, for 2-3” of new snow. Then we’ll see around 2” of rain. That’d be two inches, not point-two-inches. Wind tomorrow will be W 15 early, rising to WSW 45 in the afternoon and WNW 50 overnight.
Tuesday is my favorite day this week, not because it’s going to snow, but because it’s really, really exciting! The snow level will be around 6000′-6500′ from the morning until the afternoon. It’ll then rise to around 8000′ in the evening before dropping to 5500′ around midnight and 2000′ by Wednesday morning. Unless something changes between now and then, this system is going to drop a lot of rain on Mt. Hood. Expect .7” or so between 4am and 4pm, followed by another 1.5”-2.0” of rain between 4pm and 1am, after which the snow level will drop and we’ll see a few inches of snow. Now for the exciting part (as if torrential rain wasn’t exciting enough): Wind on Tuesday will be W 50 early, rising to W 75 in the afternoon and holding all the way through Wednesday morning.
In a wild twist, it looks like that Tuesday night system will drop south, and then swing north again, dumping another round of heavy rain on Mt. Hood. That’s a long ways out to be predicting, so we’ll have to wait and see.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
When I checked the gradients around 6:30 this morning, they were off the charts: .21 (pdx-dls) with .03 further east. That had winds in the western Gorge in the mid-20’s. As this cold front pushes in, a low pressure system moves inland to our south, and high pressure builds off the coast – yes, the perfect storm – you can expect gusty, up-and-down, 30-40 from Steven’s Locks out to Arlington (Arlington’s a little behind the game this morning, but it’s coming). The strong wind will last through early afternoon and then fade rapidly. The steadiest wind today, of course, will be east of the low clouds, but I suspect the super-strong gradient will be enough for wind in the central Gorge too. Sail with a buddy, wear a helmet, and watch out for flotsam and jetsam in the water.
Tomorrow starts off with leftover westerlies at 7-11, fading to light and variable conditions in the afternoon.
A wickedly strong weather system moves in on Tuesday, setting us up for another BIG day on the river. Expect west wind at 21-24 early with 30-40+ for the remainder of the day all the way from Steven’s Locks to Arlington. With 2” of rain forecast for the Cascades Monday night, there’s going to be a lot of stuff in the water on Tuesday. Be careful.
Wednesday looks light and variable, and it’s looking like we’ll see building, chilly east wind over the Thur-Fri period.
Random Morning Thoughts
I’m thinking about diversification this morning. This forecast, for example, has diversified over the years: first it was wind. Then it was wind and weather. Then it was snow. And trails. And events. And then my reflections somehow crept into the mix.
We do our best, as people planning for the future, to diversify our financial holdings (should we be lucky enough to be in a position to have financial holdings). We might have a car, a house, a savings account, and investments in stocks, bonds, gold, collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, or other derivatives (I LOVE it when I can get CDOs into the forecast!).
However, many people forget to diversify themselves. Yes, that’s right. You want to diversify you too. When the market crashes, you’ll be glad you have some money in cash. In the same way, if you break your leg, you’ll be glad you have some self-image and fulfillment connected to something other than your sporting ability.
If you receive all your joy and self-esteem from just one domain of your life, you’re setting yourself up for big trouble when that domain is taken away from you. So, find other ways to be in the world. You can identify with roles (sporty, mom, dad), things you like to do (ride bikes, read books, meditate), or ways to be in the world (compassionate, open to experience, dedicated to learning). The more domains you develop, the more likely you’ll be to have a fallback plan when things go wonky in one domain. And maybe, just maybe, you can eventually find a way to be happy without identifying with any domains at all. But that’s a discussion for another time.
Diversify yourself. It’s the ultimate safety plan. As an added bonus, diversified people are more interesting and more awesome. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s cloudy and rainy out there this morning as a cold front approaches the central Gorge. Expect rain this morning and showers this afternoon. Temps will be in the mid 40’s all day long. Nuking wind. 76% chance of rainbows.
Tomorrow may start out partly cloudy or even clear. On the other hand, the ground is quite wet, and that might lead to a Nothing cloud. Either way, ti’s going to be chilly, with temps in the low to mid 30’s, depending on your Gorge elevation. Watch out for icy roads tomorrow. We’ll see clouds by afternoon with temps in the mid 40’s and heavy rain tomorrow night. Light wind. 4% chance of rainbows.
Tuesday starts off showery with temps in the low 40’s and ends up rainy with temps in the mid 50’s. Nuking wind. 98% chance of rainbows. Models seem to be consistent in predicting an incursion of cold air later this week with east wind and highs in the 30’s. A weather system is predicted to swing over the top of this Friday night, possibly leading to the first Gorge snow of the season. It’s a long ways out, and might not happen, but it’s something to watch, for sure.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
There are some guys planning on doing a big road bike ride today up near Glenwood. That should be interesting with the nuking winds headed this way. I’m going to suggest that you skip the road riding today. Maybe even skip being in the woods, because trees and branches will be falling down. Syncline will be way too windy to ride until late this afternoon. Post is likely muddy. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine – I’ll try and go check Hospital Hill for you today! Worth noting: there’s a massive high-elevation windstorm predicted for Tuesday into Wednesday. If we haven’t lost the 44 Road trails to blowdown before then, we will likely lose them for the season that day (unless you like hike-a-bike!).
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Upcoming Events
Today, being Sunday, has fun events for you. There’s free yoga at 9am at Yoga Samadhi, brought to you by the lovely Crystal. There’s another free class, YogaFaith style, at Pure Yoga at 4pm. You can play pickup touch rugby at 3pm at the Mosier School, and there’s ping pong at the Hood River Armory.
Coming up tomorrow: free Tai Chi at 1pm at the Mt. Hood Town Hall. At 6:30 tomorrow (I’ll be in school, you have fun) there’s free yoga at the Town Hall, free Zumba at the Mt. Hood Community Center, free yoga at Yoga Samadhi and Aikido (not free) at Trinity Natural Medicine.
Coming up next weekend, there are not-on-but-two work parties at Falls Creek, WEATHER PERMITTING. Given the forecast for the end of the week, the weather may not be permitting. Stay tuned for details.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira