The run-to-run variation in forecast models is driving me crazy. Yesterday’s early run showed just a little precip Wednesday, followed by dry weather for the weekend. The next run showed heavy snow Thursday and Friday, followed by snow showers on the weekend. This morning’s run showed heavy snow Thursday into Friday, followed by dry weather and rebuilding ridging for next weekend. Are we seeing a pattern change? Not if the rebuilding ridging scenario holds. Will we see some snow next week? Gosh, I hope so. I hope that Thursday system doesn’t fade away to nothing! Continued below the chart…
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 0’–>1000’ |
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| Tomorrow 0’–>8000’ |
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| The day after 8000’–>6500’ |
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Whatever happens at the end of next week waits to be seen. Today, however, is easy. Expect sunshine on Mt. Hood. The free air freezing level (FAF) will be at the surface early and around 1000′ this afternoon. Temps at 5000′ will max out in the mid 20’s. The wind is the real story today: NE 30 at 5000′ and much stronger higher. But hey, it’s less wind than it would have been, had the heat low moved further north and had colder air made it to the Columbia Basin!
Tomorrow looks clear in the morning with high clouds moving in during the afternoon. The FAF will be at the surface early and at 8000′ in the afternoon. Wind will be NE 25 early and NE 10 in the afternoon.
Expect high clouds Tuesday morning with clear sky by afternoon. The FAF will be 8000′ early and 6500′ in the afternoon. Wind will be NE 10 early and NW 25 in the afternoon. Wednesday looks partly cloudy, and if nothing changes between now and Thursday, the Thursday-Friday period holds the potential for 8-12” of snow at 5000′. Fingers crossed.
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Gorge Wind
A couple of factors combined last night to make this morning’s gradients and wind far less than they would have been given yesterday’s model run. The heat low off the Cali coast didn’t really move north, and the cold air predicted for the Columbia Basin never really materialized. That said, we have a .09 east gradient, but it’s still going to be 30-40 at Rooster today and 24-28 at Steven’s Locks. Expect E 25-30 tomorrow morning at Rooster, fading a bit in the afternoon. A weak weather system approaching Tuesday afternoon gives us gusty W 26-30 from Swell to Arlington, or maybe Mosier to Arlington. If nothing changes between now and Wednesday, you can expect a Corridor westerly day with 24-28 at Swell and a bit less in Hood River.
Random Morning Thoughts
I was talking to a friend yesterday about being in the present, and he mentioned something about getting swept away by thoughts. Yep, that’s the thing that takes us out of the moment. I have a theory about that, based on nothing other than my own anecdotal evidence.
We think about stuff rather than experiencing stuff. For example, say I’m having a rough time at work (I’m not, btw). I might think about my boss or coworkers or my pay rate or the crappy cafeteria food. But if I stop for a moment and really listen to my emotions, I might see the truth.
Maybe I’m afraid of losing my job and the shame that comes with being let go. I might be sad that my boss didn’t give me that project I wanted. I might be scared that if my sick coworkers get me sick, I might have to take unpaid time off and not have enough money to feed my family (which leads into a whole other spiral of emotions).
So, my point is that thoughts about our problems distract us from feeling and working through the difficult emotions. And those emotions aren’t going anywhere. Thoughts and distraction aren’t bad, but I’m pretty sure we can’t fully process what’s going on in our world if we keep distracting ourselves from the emotions by endless circles of thoughts. Plus, that thinking spiral sucks. =)
Gorge Weather Forecast
The air mass has dried out a lot this morning, and that’s giving us clear sky to start the day. Speaking of the air mass, today is not a good day to burn stuff. It’s very dry, and although it’s winter, the fire danger is going to be well above average today. Anyway, expect a sunny day. Temps will be in the low 30’s early and the upper 40’s in the afternoon. No rainbows. Tomorrow looks clear. Temps will be in the low 30’s early and the low 50’s in the afternoon. We’ll see clouds on Tuesday afternoon as a very weak weather system slides through. Temps will be in the upper 20’s early and the upper 50’s in the afternoon.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Yes, yes, yes. The dirt is PERFECT! In road biking news, it’s going to be quite breezy today once it warms up a bit, with moderate easterlies all over the Gorge. Keep that in mind for your riding plans. Tomorrow looks a bit less windy. As of right now, it looks like we’ll see strong westerlies on Tuesday and Wednesday, at least during the afternoon, so plan accordingly for your pavement pleasure. If the models are correct, we may see snow at low enough elevations on Thursday to take Lost Lake and Vista Ridge out of the picture for a while, so if you’d like to get them mid-winter, get them now.
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Upcoming Events
It’s Sunday. There’s community yoga at 9am at Yoga Samadhi in White Salmon. At 3pm, there’s pickup touch rugby at the Mosier School and ping pong at the Hood River Armory. At 6pm, there’s community yoga at Root Down in Hood River. Coming up tomorrow night at 5:30, there’s Aikido class at Trinity in Hood River at 5:30pm. This Thursday night, the 26th, there’s a free avalanche awareness clinic at Dog River Coffee with Ranger Jimmy T. I believe that’s at 6:30pm.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
