Forecasting is getting increasingly tricky as we head farther from the heat of summer and closer to the cold of winter. As weather systems outnumber calm, sunny days, the wind (and the forecasts) will become more unreliable. That said, our general picture this week is offshore high pressure combined with an inland trough of low pressure. With the exception of today, models think we’ll see very light, if any wind. I’m a bit suspicious of those predictions, so I’m going to forecast more. Take these forecasts with a grain of salt. Also, there will be no forecast on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday this week, most likely, due to prior commitments on my part. Continued after the chart…
| Your favorite beach | Dawn Patrol |
9am- 11:30a |
11:30a- 3pm |
3pm- dusk |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwash (Rooster) Rock | bring | on the | bare | butts! | |
| Steven’s Locks aka Stevenson Cascade Locks |
5-10 | 10-13 | 18-22 | 23-26 | |
| Hatchery/White Salmon Sandbar |
5-10 | 10-13 | 18-22 | 23-26 | |
| Doug’s, Lyle, Rowena | 5-10 | 10-13 | 18-22 | 23-26 | |
| Rufus, etc. | 5-10 | 10-13 | 18-22 | 23-26 | |
| Roosevelt, etc. | 5-10 | 10-13 | 18-22 | 23-26 | |
|
|||||
Gorge wind forecast, continued…
For today, Monday, expect a light wind start. Speeds will hover in the 5-10 range for the first couple hours this morning, rising to 12-15 from Steven’s Locks to Hood River by noon. As the day goes on, we’ll see a weak front approach. That will drive the speeds into the 23-26 range from Steven’s Locks to Arlington, with the steadiest wind likely at Stevenson, Mosier, Avery and Arlington. You’ll probably find a couple hours of good wind at Swell before the speed drops drastically, leaving you doing the hula / kite pump dance.
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Tuesday’s model predictions start with light and variable wind and only climb to 10-13 at best. I suspect we’ll actually end up with afternoon wind in the 19-22 range from Stevenson to Mosier. That forecast is based purely on gut instinct.
Wednesday’s forecast is also based purely on gut instinct. Models say no-wind-at-all all day long. I suspect we’ll see light and variable wind in the morning. The LTV morning will be followed by a W 10-13 afternoon, with the wind concentrated between Steven’s Locks and Mosier. Models are currently suggesting a strong west wind day on Thursday, but that’s a long ways out to be predicting, especially this time of year!
Jones, Sauvie’s, Coast Beta Test Forecast
Jones Monday: 5-10. Tuesday: 7-10. Wednesday: 7-10. Sauvie’s Monday: no. Sauvie’s Tuesday: 7-10. Wednesday: 7-10. Coast (north/central/south). Monday: no/no/25-30, W swell 8′ at 12 seconds. Tuesday: no/no/25-30, W 7′ @ 11. Wednesday: 15-20/5-10/15-20, W 5′ @ 8.
Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
Click here for your 2016-2017 ski season forecast.
Random Morning Thoughts
I was listening to a talk yesterday by a monk we’ll call Ajahn V. There was a lot of wisdom crammed into this 30 minute unscripted speech. What caught my mind most was a comment about our reactions to some specific thing being merely a reflection of our processes. His words felt metaphorical, and my mind immediately jumped to the fact that all of our reactions to everything in the world are a reflection of our larger, deeper mental processes.
For example, if my neighbor happens to have a barking dog (thank god he doesn’t – the most I hear form him is a loud ‘GOOOOOOAAAALLLLL’ when Mexico scores), I might get irritated by this. But I might have a larger reaction too, a total freakout. This may have nothing to do with the annoying barks. Perhaps I feel helpless, powerless, hopeless, infuriated, afraid to speak to him or afraid to escalate by calling the condo association. Or perhaps one of those emotions is dominant, driving my freakout.
We can learn a lot by understanding which emotions push us over an edge into uncontrolled reactions and behaviors. These global patterns are signposts to something gone wrong long ago. If we can find our way back and truly understand, we can teach ourselves that things are different now. We are grownups. We have voices. We have power. We have choices.
The trick is being aware enough to discover the patterns, study them, and understand them on a deeply conscious level. When that happens, a barking dog is just a dog, not a threat to our existence. Your reactions are not fixed, permanent or wrong. They are merely windows into your soul. Have an awesome day.
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist (but I could be 51 graduate school credits from now). I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues. One other thing: I plan to keep doing this forecast indefinitely, even when I am a therapist.
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s partly cloudy out there this Monday morning as high clouds from an approaching front mix with lower clouds from other sources. Temps will be near 50 this morning and 69 this afternoon. Light wind early. Moderate later. No rainbows. Tuesday looks partly cloudy. Temps will be in the mid 40’s early and the upper 60’s in the afternoon. Light wind. No rainbows. Wednesday looks just like Tuesday. Next chance of rain in Friday.
For weather specifically directed at travel through the Gorge, please visit Temira’s Awesome Travel Advisory Service on Facebook.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Apparently the entire town of Hood River was out in Post Canyon yesterday. Facebook was filled with photos of perfect dirt. Now that it’s Monday, you too can ride. You can also go ride the 44 Road trails, which looked like they were still in the rainclouds on Sunday. You cannot ride Hospital Hill or Whoopdee or East Ridge – they are still closed due to fire danger.
Upcoming Events
Events today include lovingkindness meditation with Kozen the Zen monk at noon at Trinity Natural Medicine. There’s free Tai Chi at the Mt. Hood Town Hall at 1. Coming up this afternoon, there’s pickup kickball at 6 at Daubenspeck Park in Bingen and community yoga at Yoga Samadhi in White Salmon. At 6:30, there’s pickup basketball at the mt. Hood Town Hall and Zumba at both St. Francis House in Odell and the Parkdale Community Center. At 5:45, there’s free YogaFaith (Christ-centered yoga) at Pure Yoga in The Dalles.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
