There are some lingering snow flurries on Mt. Hood this morning at the back end of the weather system that dumped 14” of snow and 2” of rain at the ski resorts yesterday. We’ll see those flurries fade, leaving us with sunbreaks on the slopes this morning. Clouds move in this afternoon, and a bit of snow falls tonight. The snow level today will be 2000′ early, falling to 500′ or less tonight. We’ll see .1-.2” this morning, for an inch or two of new on top of the saturated snowpack. We’ll see another .2” water value (WV) tonight, for 1-3” of new snow. Wind today will be WSW 40 in the morning, fading to SW 10 in the evening and turning to W 15 tonight. Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 2000′–>500′ |
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| Tomorrow 0′–>1000′ |
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| The next day 1000′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
Tomorrow starts off with a few flurries and sunbreaks, gets cloudy late in the day, and sees light snowfall overnight. The snow level will be 500′ or less in the morning, 1500′ in the afternoon, and 500′ or less overnight. We’ll see a trace of new in the morning followed by .1-.2” WV overnight, for 1-3” of new snow. Wind tomorrow will be W 20 early, becoming WSW 25 in the afternoon and evening.
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Sunday brings orographic (terrain-enhanced) snowfall all day. That will be followed by a stronger overnight weather system. The snow level will be 1000′ or less through midnight, rising to 2000′ after midnight. We’ll see .5” WV between 4am and 4pm, for 5-7” of new snow. We’ll see another .5-1” WV overnight, for 6-12” of new. Wind on Sunday will be SW 40 early, switching to a brutal W 45-50 by 7am and continuing through the evening.
Monday starts with heavy snow. It’s unclear what will happen in the afternoon. NOAA’s calling for a snow level of 4500′ in their forecast discussion, but the 850mb (5000′) temp model suggests a snow level closer to 5500′. So… let’s wait a day and see how things shake out. At this point, it looks like we’ll see 1’+ of WV, so all snow would be awesome.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
We still have east wind this morning, and that’s why it’s still 33 degrees in Hood River while it’s 52 degrees in Portland. It would be nice if you city folks could share some of your degrees with us. We’re dying out here.
Anyway, expect easterlies at 15-18 at Stevenson and Rooster this morning, switching to light westerlies later today. Tomorrow starts off light and variable and becomes W less than 10 in the afternoon. Sunday starts off with E 15-18 and switches to W 20-23 in the afternoon. Monday starts off with moderate east wind and switches to strong west wind.
Random Morning Thoughts
And then there are those days where you’re certain you blew the forecast, and you take responsibility, and 8-12” of snow falls, just like you said it would. =)
Forecasting weather, as you may have noticed, is a messy business. The meteorologist is required to engage in a “process of reasonable inquiry in which solutions to ill-structured problems are constructed. The adequacy of those solutions is evaluated in terms of what is most reasonable or probable according to the current evidence, and it is reevaluated when relevant new evidence, perspectives, or tools of inquiry become available.”
That quote comes from Kirchener’s stages of reflective judgment. Click through and see where you fall on that scale, if you’re curious.
As human beings, we are often presented with situations that require this kind of thinking. Answers to our queries, problems, and options aren’t often clear. Our minds don’t like such vast uncertainty, and having many options gives us ample opportunity for regret, rumination, and grief at the road not taken.
That’s just life: lots of choices, and many with no right or wrong answers. The best we humans can do is accept that the world is full of options. We can attempt attempt to rejoice in the vastness of possibility. Choices are freedom. Freedom can be stressful, but it can also be invigorating. Think of all the cool stuff you can experience, if you only jump right in!
There really aren’t many black or white answers. There’s only life. It’s messy, like weather forecasting. And much like weather forecasting, life is awesome. Enjoy it. Have an awesome day!
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s ironic that I had the forecast for the Gorge right for five days before the storm started, and then gave up on it as it started happening! We ended up exactly as Mark, Cap and I predicted: 8-12” of snow for the Gorge, followed by areas of freezing rain. You can expect a cloudy start to the day today with temps just above freezing. It’s likely we’ll see some sunbreaks and showers later as the front pushes through, warming us up to the low 40’s. In a tricky twist, temps look to drop below freezing tonight, leaving us with icy roads and a chance for an inch or so of snow. Light wind. 32% chance of rainbows.
Tomorrow’s also looking a little tricky. Temps will be around 30 degrees early and 40 (or not – I think NOAA’s a little optimistic there) in the afternoon. It’s most likely going to be mostly cloudy. There’s not a lot of moisture headed our way, but there’s enough that we could see some flurries in the morning and up to an inch of snow tomorrow night starting around 7pm. Light and variable wind. No rainbows.
Sunday looks tricky too. We’ll be right around freezing early and in the upper 30’s in the afternoon with the snow level at less than 1000′. We’ll probably see on-and-off mixed precipitation at river level during the day with a few inches of snow above 1000′. Moderate easterlies early switch to moderate westerlies in the afternoon. 22% chance of rainbows.
Monday morning, believe it or not, is tricky! As of right now, it looks like the Gorge will be above freezing, but if there’s more cold air trapped east of us than models currently suggest, we could see some snow before a switch to moderate rain. Most likely we’ll see rain, but it’s always good to be prepared for the worst!
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Certainly, if you have access to trails and roads that aren’t located in the Columbia Gorge!
Upcoming Events
It’s hard to say what’s happening in the Gorge today, given the random distribution of snow and ice through out the mid-Columbia. The Kickstand Coffee Run normally happens every Friday morning at 7am. You could try – they’ll probably be there. Coming up this weekend, there’s a rail jam at Meadows on Saturday and a free demo day there on Sunday. Timberline has a Winter Kickoff party on Saturday. Anson’s Bike Buddies has a bike repair party at their storage shed behind Cascade Eye Center in Hood River form 3pm to 6pm on Saturday.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
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