I’m writing this forecast at 6am, and it’s a bit of a waiting game up on Mt. Hood this morning. As I was writing, it was high overcast on the hill, but the radar image showed incoming precipitation with the first of today’s two weather systems. We’ll see the snow level at 3000′ this morning, rising to 6000′ by midday and 7500′ with the arrival of the next weather system around 7pm tonight. Continued after the chart.
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4a-8a | 8a-12p | 12p-4p | 4p-8p | 8p-4a |
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| Today 3000′–>7500′–>5500′ |
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| Tomorrow 5500′–>9000′ |
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| The next day 9000′–>6500′–>9000′ |
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast, continued…
The precip amounts with the first system are hard to predict – models show the precip missing Mt. Hood, but the radar image has a different story to tell. So… let’s say we’ll see .2-.4” water value (WV) with the first system, and .6-.9” with the second system. Unfortunately, the snow level will be rising today; we may see 1-3” of snow this morning before a transition to mixed precipitation this afternoon. Tonight’s system comes in with the snow level at 7500′, so it’s going to be all rain. To recap: .2-.4” WV this morning as snow/mixed precip. Second system: .6-.9” between 7pm today and 4am tomorrow as rain. Wind today will be SW 20-30 early and SW 40-50 in the afternoon and tonight.
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Tomorrow starts off with light precipitation and dropping snow levels, and then clears up late morning. Another system brings clouds to Mt. Hood by 4pm, and precip starts overnight The snow level tomorrow will be 5500′ early, dropping to 4000′ in the afternoon, and rising to 9000′ after midnight. We’ll see .1-.3” WV between 4am and 10am, possibly as mixed precip, but more likely as snow, for 1-2” of new. When the next system hits around 10pm, the snow level will be 4500′, but it will quickly rise to 9000′. That means we’ll see a couple inches of snow followed by rain, for an inch or two of new followed by .7-1.0” rain. Wind tomorrow will be SW 30 early, rising to SW 40 in the afternoon and WSW 70 overnight.
Monday starts off with pouring rain as a Pineapple Express slams right into Mt. Hood. It’ll clear up or becomes partly cloudy midday, and then another round of rain arrives overnight. The snow level Monday will be 9000′ early, 8000′ in the afternoon, 6500′ overnight, and back up to 9000′ by Tuesday morning. We’ll see 3.5” of rain (yup) during the day Monday, followed by another 1” of rain overnight. These totals could change as we get closer. Wind Monday will be W 60 early, WSW 70 midday, and W 60 in the afternoon and evening, dropping a bit overnight.
Tuesday sees the snow level at 9000′-11,000′ with inches of rain. Hi, Pineapple Express. Wednesday also looks really wet and warm in the morning, with colder weather possible in the afternoon. The general picture after Wednesday afternoon is fluctuating snow levels with high WV fluctuating between snow and rain. It currently looks like we’ll go to all snow, all the time, at some point Friday.
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Gorge Wind Forecast
There’s a bit of an easterly thing happening in the Gorge this morning supported by an E .12 gradient. The wind at 5:30 was in the mid 20’s at Rooster and the teens at Steven’s Locks. We’ll see those east winds pick up to 35-40 at Rooster today with 30ish at Steven’s Locks. Tomorrow starts off with easterlies at 20-25 and backs off to light and variable wind in the afternoon. Monday currently looks like a light and variable wind day.
Looking into the long-range models, a couple of strong, compact upper level lows are forecast to swing across the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday. If the timing works out, we’ll see some very big westerlies with the passage of these two systems. One thing to keep in mind: these systems are associated with very heavy rain and will force a lot of debris into the Columbia. Be prepared to navigate floating logs and such if you head for the river later next week.
For those of you wanting to watch the wind speeds at Stevenson, you can check the town’s weather station.
Random Morning Thoughts
As many of you know, I’m taking a Hakomi training in conjunction with my schooling at PSU. Hakomi makes prodigious use of other counseling theories and techniques along with incorporating neuroscience/neurobiology research.
According to some of these theories, our brains are composed (in part) of neural networks. Ideas and concepts are linked to other ideas and concepts – this is why free association works. When we start talking about one thing, we fire up all the neural networks linked to that particular concept.
I was thinking about this when I woke up lonely and sad this morning after having an amazing love-filled day yesterday. After a couple moments contemplation, I realized that a dream I had last night had kicked my mind into a different neural network. When this happens to us, we can go from hunky-dory to miserable in the blink of an eye. Neural networks are fast!
Once we know that our brains work like this, we can work to strengthen the pleasant networks. We can work to shift out of the unpleasant networks when they take over. We can do this by hanging out with people who love us, by bringing to mind pleasant experiences, by participating in pleasant activities… the possibilities are vast.
The more time we spend in those pleasant neural networks, the stronger they become. This is why meditating on positive mind states works; the more often we fire a network, the more likely it becomes to fire spontaneousy. And the more intertwined that network becomes with all aspects of our life. So, remember this when you’re feeling crappy for no reason at all: it’s just a neural network asserting itself. It’s not you. See if you can counteract that network with one you like better, and see if you can create a happier you. Happiness is awesome. Have an awesome day!
Disclaimer required by my grad school program: I am not your therapist. I am your weather forecaster. Take everything I say with a grain of salt, and consult with your actual therapist about your mental health issues.
Gorge Weather Forecast
Looking out the window of my friend’s house in Portland, it’s very dark and cloudy. That really doesn’t help me with weather for the Gorge today. I suspect it’s high overcast, but we’ll see a warm front move in with sprinkles during the day followed by heavier rain tonight. Temps will be in the mid 30’s early and the upper 30’s this afternoon. I totally blew the rainbow forecast yesterday, and I apologize for that. With today’s rain driven by a warm front, rainbows are unlikely, but let’s give it a 5% chance, just in case. East wind.
Tomorrow starts out partly cloudy with showers. It might get sunny during the day before clouds move in late afternoon and rain starts overnight. Temps will be in the mid 30’s early and the mid 40’s in the afternoon. Light east wind fades to light-and-variable in the afternoon. 74% chance of rainbows in the morning.
Monday looks holy-crap rainy. Temps will be in the low 40’s early and the low 50’s in the afternoon. Light wind. 96% chance of rainbows. Tuesday looks wet, very wet. Wednesday also looks very wet. Kayakers will be happy. The rest of us, not so much!
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
Please don’t – the trails are a muddy mess, and you’ll do damage if you ride. Please let your friends know that they too will be doing major damage if they ride on the trails right now. This time of year is the reason (someone) invented Spin and Crank and whatever else all those indoor cycle classes are called. Sure, it’s way more fun to be in the woods. But the woods will be back, or maybe you can switch to hiking for a little while?
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear.
Temira approves. Click to join.
Upcoming Events
There’s a trail run in Post Canyon today at 8am. Coming up tomorrow: two free yoga classes. There’s one at 9am at Yoga Samadhi, and there’s one at 4pm at Pure Yoga in The Dalles.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
