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Pledge Drive, 2015
Thank you for using this forecast! If you’ve never donated or it’s been a while, here’s your chance. Click on my photo to kick down. Does this forecast save you time? Gas money? Does it help you get the good days on the water and mountain? Drop me a few bucks to say thanks. I spend over an hour each day writing this because I want you to have more fun. Your contribution supports my graduate education in counseling at Portland State, the repair of my bikes, and the coffee that goes in my French press. If you can’t afford to donate or don’t want to, that’s okay too: this forecast is offered free for you to use. Donations of $12.34 or more get you on the email list for the next year. All new subscribers this month are entered in a drawing for a TGIMG t-shirt. Thank you, and have an awesome day!
| Your favorite beach | Dawn Patrol |
9am- 11:30a |
11:30a- 3pm |
3pm- dusk |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooster Rock | red buns |
in morning |
nudists | take warning! |
|
| Steven’s Locks | 10-13 | 10-13 | 16-19 | 16-19 | |
| Hatchery/White Salmon Sandbar (minus a few for Hood River) | 10-13 | 10-13 | gusty 16-19 |
gusty 21-24 |
|
| Doug’s, Lyle, Rowena | 21-24 | 24-28 | 30+ | 30+ | |
| Rufus, etc. | 21-24 | 24-28 | 30+ | 30+ | |
| Roosevelt, etc. | 21-24 | 24-28 | 30+ | 30+ | |
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Gorge Wind Forecast (and Sauvie’s, Jones, the Coast…)
Today brings the passage of an upper level low across Oregon and Washington, and that’s going to (once again) complicate the forecast picture. In addition to the dynamics, the low is moving much slower than the models are predicting, an added difficulty in forecasting. That said, the 5am gradients were quite large, a good sign for today: .15 (pdx-dls), .10 (dls-psc), .61 (eph-psc) and .30 (oth-psc). In addition, marine clouds had already pushed past HR by dawn.
So… the depth of the marine clouds means you’ll be driving eastward for the strongest and steadiest wind today. Expect 10-13 under the clouds early with gusty 16-19 or a bit more under the clouds this afternoon. Let’s call that the Steven’s Locks to Bingen stretch of the river. Places not under the marine clouds will see 20-24 this morning, quickly rising to 30+ this afternoon. Putting place names on that forecast, you can expect 30+ at Mosier (maybe), Rowena, Lyle, Doug’s, The Wall, Rufus, Arlington and Roosevelt. In other words, there’s a 99% chance of unicorns in today’s wind forecast.
There’s one thing to keep in mind: as the low center passes over us this afternoon, there’s a distinct chance of thunder. If the cumulus clouds build and thunder starts rolling, all bets are off on the forecast. Also, I talked to the Roosevelt mini-mart this morning at 8:30, and they said the park has reopened.
It’s the bi-annual summer pledge drive!
See above for details.
High pressure builds off the coast tomorrow morning as the upper level low moves east and out of the picture. That’ll leave marine clouds in the western Gorge, sunshine in the east, and a stable atmosphere. Expect 21-24 through the whole Gorge in the morning, backing off in the eastern Gorge by early afternoon and picking up to 23-26 in the central Gorge. Sunday looks like 10-13 out of the west. Models for Monday, a long ways out, currently predict 25-29.
Coast (north/central/south). Today: Light onshore, NW swell 4′ @ 8 seconds. Tomorrow: 5-10/15-20/30+, NW 5 @ 9. Sunday: 20-25/25-30/30+, NW 2 @ 8.
Jones n’ Sauvie’s beta test forecast. Jones today, 13-16. Jones tomorrow, 21-24. Jones Sunday, 21-24. Sauvie’s today, nada. Sauvie’s tomorrow, 7-10. Sauvie’s Sunday, 11-14.
Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
Nothing to say here today.
Random Morning Thoughts
So often we rely on the things we hear from others, rather than doing research ourselves. That approach, while valuable in some instances, can lead to incorrect conclusions much of the time. In the spirit of this, I’d like to talk about snow. After all, there wasn’t much last winter, and there’s sure not much in the mountains right now. The news media are going bonkers talking about the potential for a SUPERELNINO with sea surface temps 1.5-2 degrees greater than average, and skiers all over the Northwest are talking about “the worst winter ever”. In the spirit of finding the “truth”, I went on an internet fact-finding mission.
Records have been kept on the ENSO (El Nino / La Nina / Neutral) status for around 70 years. There have been 5 years (okay, maybe one or two more, but I couldn’t get complete data for those) of El Nino where the sea surface temp was greater than +1 degree above average. Here are those years and their total snowfall at Mt. Hood Meadows (last year was about 200”, and an average year is around 415”).
Also, keep in mind that a sample size of 5 is not statistically significant, meaning that you can’t really conclude anything from these numbers about this year. What you can conclude is that the conversation about this year being terrible is not based in reality.
Season, SST, total snowfall
97-98, +2.3, 584″
82-83, + 2.1, 623″
91-92, +1.5, 323″
09-10, +1.3, 417″
86-87, +1.1, 550″
I am not saying that this year will be good. I am not saying that this year will be bad. I am not, in fact, saying anything at all about this year, because I do not believe you can make a prediction based on a statistically insignificant sample size! I have no opinion on whether you should buy a pass, and I don’t know if you should buy new powder skis. All I am suggesting is that the next time you hear a piece of information that others proclaim to be fact, you may want to do some research of your own!
Gorge Weather Forecast
It’s partly cloudy this morning and shall continue to be today as an upper level low moves inland later this afternoon. We’ll see temps in the mid 60’s this morning and mid 70’s this afternoon with a slight chance of thunderstorms later today. Strong wind, 2% chance of rainbows. Tomorrow may start off with a few marine clouds, but quickly becomes clear. Temps will be in the upper 50’s early and the low 80’s in the afternoon. Moderate wind. No rainbows. Sunday starts off in the upper 50’s and climbs to the upper 80’s. Light wind. No rainbows.
White Sprinter Van of the Day
Road and Mountain Biking
There’s no news to report today, other than a decreased chance of lightning in the forecast, meaning there’s a decreased chance of any of our trails burning up. Tomorrow morning looks nice for road biking, with just light west wind. Get out early before it gets hot. If you ride the upper valley this morning, they will likely not be windy, as a nice cap in the atmosphere will keep the wind at low elevations. Remember that parts of the 23 road are closed, meaning the Forest Loop is closed.
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear.
Temira approves. Click to join.
Cascade Acupuncture Center
Cascade Acupuncture Center has your back! And all your other achy body parts. For 10 years, CAC has been healing locals with acupuncture, massage and custom Chinese herbs. Allergy Elimination has no side effects and has helped many lessen their seasonal and food allergies significantly in just a few sessions. It can even lessen the effects of Poison Oak! You can reach CAC Monday through Saturday with locations in Hood River, The Dalles and Stevenson.
Upcoming Events
This morning at 7am, you can do the Kickstand Coffee Run. 4.1 miles of jogging, running or walking will get you a free cup of coffee and a donut. There’s also Iaido at 5:30am on some Fridays, but you’re a better person than I if you can get up that early. Tonight at dusk, the movie The Princess Bridge plays at Cascade Locks Movies in the Park. Tonight at 7pm, the Seahawks play the Broncos at Centurylink Field (or on a TV near you).
Tomorrow is the Skamania County Fair 5k and 10k, the Post Canyon half-marathon and 50k, the last Gorge Cup windsurfing race of the season at the Event Site (followed by a BBQ thanks to Da Kine), and the Double Damned sailboat race from Cascade Locks to The Dalles. There’s also a trail run at 8am in Post Canyon, a beginner-friendly women’s bike ride at Mt. View Cycles at 9am. In the evening, it’s the King of the Hook longboard freestyle contest (5pm at the Hook), the Post Canyon 50k afterparty (7pm at Kickstand Coffee), and the Movie Akeelah and the Bee (dusk at Jackson Park).
Finally, if you’re making plans for the weekend, plan to avoid the Gifford Pinchot. The Cougar Creek fire has closed a bunch of roads and trails including the South Climb route on Mt. Adams, and parts of the 23 road. If you want more Cougar Creek Fire information, you can find it on Inciweb and on the NWCC website. The fire was at 18,000 acres as of last night.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
