4/4 Forecast

Posted by
 April 4, 2011

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Good morning!

I know people expect the weather man (or weather girl or woman or tranny) to get the forecast wrong 50% of the time, but I prefer getting it right. Today is one of those days where I can write a forecast at 6am and be totally wrong two hours later and come out looking silly. You might expect errors in the forecast, but I do not.

That said, the snow level is fluctuating right now, with a warm air mass from the south moving over a colder air mass already in place. Let’s call the snow level 5000’ right now. Models suggest it could hit 6000’ today, but they’re showing that for only a brief period this afternoon. So, I’m going to say we’ll see wet, heavy snow, possibly rimed up, possibly mixed with freezing rain (there was a little freezing rain last night), before we see all snow, all the time, starting around 4pm when the snow level falls to 4500’. Models are forecasting 2-3” of WV today (yes, you read that correctly), with very heavy precip between 10am today and 2am tomorrow. By tomorrow morning, 4am, I think we’ll see 7-11” at 5000’ and 14-18”+ at 6600’. Winds today will be WSW 45-50 early, dropping to 35-40 by 1pm.

The snow level falls to 1500’ by 4am tomorrow, with moderate snow through 4am, switching to orographic snow showers after the front passes around that time. We’ll see flurries all day, with 3-4” of new snow. Winds will be pretty strong tomorrow: WNW 30-35 early, falling to 20-30 by 11am.

The fun continues Wednesday, with the snow level at 1500’ all day and 1-1.5” WV in the forecast. We’ll see heavy snowfall all day long for 13-16” of new. About two-thirds of that will fall before 4pm and the rest will fall overnight. Winds will be WSW 40-45 early, falling to 25-30 by 11am and holding for the rest of the day. The skiing on Wednesday will not suck.

The skiing on Thursday also will not suck. The snow level starts off around 1000’. Although it’s forecast to hold, if we do see some clearing in the afternoon, temps will spike, messing with the pow quality. Anyway, we’ll see moderate snow through 10am, becoming flurries after that with a chance of sunbreaks for a total of .25” WV or a couple inches of new snow. Winds will be WNW 20-30 early falling to W 5-10 by 11am.

At this point, Friday, Saturday and Sunday look sunny.

The windsurfing and kiting potential for the next few days is poor, with only gusty westerlies in the eastern Gorge as wet front after wet front moves through.

Finally, I would like to say that I am very, very sad that little Skibowl is not open for night skiing on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday this week.

Have a great day today!


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