3/19 forecast

Posted by
 March 19, 2011

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Good morning!

Yay! Clear skies! We should see blue overhead until noon or so, when clouds start moving in. The freezing level this morning will be 1500-2000’, rising to 3000’ late in the day. However, the strength of the sun is going to make the snow ski warmer than that by midday. Winds will remain pretty light, at SW 15-20 early and S 10-15 by afternoon. One model shows .25-.5” of precip, but I just don’t see that happening. Maybe .2” water value after 3pm for a couple of inches of new by tomorrow.

Sunday looks snowy, with the snow level at 1500’ early, 2000’ by 2pm and 4000’ by 5pm. Snow will start falling around 5am, and will fall continuously through 7pm for a total of, depending on which model you look at, .25-.6” of water value. I think we’ll see 4-5” of new tomorrow. There is also a slight chance of overrunning warm air messing with snow quality and possibly giving us some incorrect precipitation late in the day. Of more concern tomorrow is the east winds suggested by the sounding model. Without really cold air in eastern Oregon, it’s unlikely that winds will reach the levels predicted by this model, but here’s what they say, just in case: E 20-30 early, E 30-40 by midday, E 20-30 by 4pm and light and variable by 8pm. If we really have the gradients the models are showing, we’re looking at accelerated winds of up to double what the models predict.

Monday looks clear early and cloudy by 1pm with snow starting around 2pm, with the free air freezing level around 4000’. Snow will fall all night long. Winds will be W 10-15pm.

By Tuesday morning, we should have .5-.75” water value for 6-8” of new on the ground. The snow level will be 1000’ with flurries in the morning and partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Winds will be W 20-25 early, falling to 10-15 by 2pm.

If you want to go windsurfing or kiting, today will bring east winds at Stevenson and Rooster, 20-25 at rooster and 15-20 at Stevenson. We’ll see big easterlies in the 30-40 range tomorrow, westerlies in the desert in the 20-25 range Monday, and then a return to east winds on Tuesday.


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