12/17. 29 degrees in HR this morning. 52 at Meadows. This weather is bizarre. And I hope you like freezing rain.

Posted by
 December 17, 2013

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Random Morning Thoughts

Thank you to Sonia and Erin for the Bar Mitts. Reynaud’s sucks. You rock.

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast

I’m not really keen on what I’m seeing in this forecast. Neither is real weatherman Mark Nelsen.

Today looks sunny and warm, with the free air freezing level (FAF) at 12,000′ early, dropping to 10,000′ in the evening and falling to 7000′ by midnight. Temps at 5000′ will be near 50 this morning, falling to the 40’s this afternoon. Wind will be W 30 this morning, dropping to W 20 overnight. No precip.

Wednesday looks cloudy with the snow level at 5000′ at 4am, dropping to 2000′ by 10am and 500′ in the late afternoon. We’ll see just .1” or so of precip during the day, likely falling as a trace of snow. Wind will be W 30 in the morning, WNW 25-35 midday and NW 30+ in the afternoon.

On Thursday, we’ll see clear and cold weather on Mt. Hood, with the FAF at the surface and temps at 5000′ in the teens in the morning and mid-20’s in the afternoon. Wind will be out of the hard-to-predict N in the morning, swinging NE midday and NW in the afternoon.

Now on to the interesting day, a little too far out to predict, but close enough for a general idea. A warm, wet system will swing over the top of this cold air. We’ll likely start with snow in the wee hours of Friday morning, switching to freezing rain around daybreak, and then switching to pure rain at some point, with .6” water value (WV) between 4am and 4pm. Wind will be spectacular: NW 50 early, NW 60 midday, and NW 70 in the afternoon. And remember, models tend to underpredict NW wind by a significant amount.

Saturday looks borderline for rain or snow. Wait and see.

Plain Old Local Weather

The end of the week is currently looking ugly here in the Gorge. Today, however, looks nice, with the high temp forecast to reach nearly 50 degrees. Wednesday looks partly cloudy with temps in the 40’s. Thursday looks cold, in the 20’s early and right around freezing in the afternoon under increasingly cloudy sky.

If it stays below freezing Thursday night, and it likely will, we’ll wake to an increasingly messy progression of snow to sleet to freezing rain on Friday morning. We should warm above freezing by Friday afternoon.

Gorge Wind Forecast

Today starts with a light east gradient, switching to west mid-morning. The wind should be W 15-18 by noon and gusty 21-24 in the evening. Wednesday starts with westerlies at 15-18. They’ll pick up to 23-26 through the whole Gorge in the afternoon. Thursday starts off light, but as a monster cold front hits, expect the wind to climb to 30+ east of Hood River.

Road and Mountain Biking

Current reports for Post and Syncline have both as mudbogs. If you are riding, you are doing major damage to the trails. You are ruining the tread, for one. Nobody likes bumpy trails. Second, you are cupping the trail, forcing water to run down it, instead of off it. Trails are outsloped, not cupped, for good reason, and when you ride in the mud, you remove the outsloping. If you or your bike is covered in mud, you should not be riding. Leave the dirt where it belongs – on the trails. Thank you.

That said, it was 50 degrees and sunny out in The Dalles yesterday, and the Petersburg loop was fantastic with no gravel. There are spots of (grippy) frost on the 8-Mile section along the creek, but the rest of the ride is in excellent shape. Go ride there!

One other thing of note: Old Highway 30 is closed 6 miles west of The Dalles due to rockfall. Not sure which side of the Rowena exit this is, as Tripcheck, at 7am, had the MP incorrectly listed as 66.

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Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events

Tomorrow night’s talk at Columbia Center for the Arts should be a good one: Peter Marbach and Himalayas and charity and all sorts of interesting things. Tonight is slightly different: $12 prime rib night at Cebu. Oh do I love meat. Tonight is also pickup rugby at 5:30 at Waterfront Park and tomorrow night is Kayak Polo at the Hood River pool at 8pm.

Have an awesome day today!