1/17 Forecast

Posted by
 January 17, 2012

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Disclaimer: This forecast is for entertainment only. Don’t use it to plan your skiing, snowboarding or travel schedule, even though I do. Although I work for Meadows, this forecast is not endorsed by Meadows and does not reflect the views of the resort. Nobody pays me to write this report (unless you make a donation), so please share the link with your friends and help me increase my hits! Thank you!

Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a

Good morning!

Woohoo! Lots of light and fluffy powder today! If you do the math on the MHM telemetry, it’s 6% water value, and that’s good stuff!

Snow continues today, with the snow level at 500’ early and 1000’ in the afternoon. Total water value will be 1.5” before 4pm for 14-20” of additional snow. Snow continues overnight, for another 2” of water value for 15-20” of additional snow, becoming wetter and heavier toward morning. Wind today will be SW 40-50 swinging to W 40-50 by 1pm.

Tomorrow brings that stable atmospheric profile we were talking about earlier, so even though the snow level will be less than 500’ (at the surface in the Gorge with dumping snow there too for 10”+), the snow falling on Mt. Hood will be heavy. We’ll see 3” of water value by 4pm and another 2” by 4am Thursday. Wind will be SW 40-50 early, picking up to SW 50-70 and holding all afternoon. Given the predicted track of the low center, just north of Mt. Hood, I would expect a near-complete shutdown of ski lifts due to wind sometime around 2pm.

The question is when the snow will switch to rain. My best guess is 1pm, but definitely by 4pm, when the snow level rises to 7500’. So, we should see 16-20” of new snow before the rain starts, with more snow at higher elevations. The Gorge should see the snowstorm switch to dumping rain by 4pm as well. Stay the hell out of the backcountry during this time period, and be careful in the resorts too, as heavy snow on top of light snow is a bad, bad setup.

The snow level drops back to 5500-6000’ around 4am Thursday and down to 5000’ by 10am and 4500’ by 4pm, so we should see a switch from rain to snow by 10am, probably by 7am. This is a vast improvement over previous forecasts, and is going to make everyone very happy! We’ll see 3” water value by 4pm for 16-20” of snow down low and more up high. Snowfall will taper off Thursday night for another 2-3” overnight. Wind Thursday will be SW 40-50 early going to W 30-40 by 10am.

Friday brings snow flurries and partly cloudy skies through 4pm and then 1.5” water value by 4am Saturday. The freezing level will be 3500’ early, rising to 5500’ by 1pm and 7500’ by 7pm for rain on the slopes overnight. We should be back to all snow, all the time, by 1am Saturday, giving us an epic day on the slopes (and some epic chair-cleaning as well). Sunday looks cold and snowy too, for more happy powder skiing.

Have a great day today!


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