Your forecaster.
Random Morning Thoughts
Gratitude Month, day 16: I was sitting here this morning struggling with the gratitude question, feeling sad because I have so many friends who are seriously ill right now. And I realized how grateful I am that one, I’m healthy, and two, that my friends let me be there for them when they need help. Friendship is a two-way street, f**kers. Remember that. Your friends want to help you. I love you guys.
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(Very Chatty) Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
Yeah, it’s snowing on Mt. Hood, and we’re all happy. A couple of things to note: First, there were multiple wind gusts over 100mph last night, including a 115.7mph at the top of Cascade. Second, MHM received over 2” water value (WV) in this storm system (approximately 16 hours), and only received 8” of snow. Around here, a normal day is 10” of snow per 1” WV, meaning last night’s snow is, well, peanut butter, not powder (assuming it stayed snow, which I’m trying to determine).
For today, the snow level is around 2500′ and isn’t going to budge much. Terrain-enhanced (orographic) snowfall continues, with another .4” WV by 4pm and another .4” WV overnight, for 4-5” today and another 3-5” overnight. Wind today will be W 20-30.
Sunday sees a few flurries alternating with breaks in the cloud cover. The snow level will be 3000′ for much of the day, rising to 5000′ in the late afternoon. Trace accumulation. Wind SW 20 early, swinging to W 30 around 10am.
Early Monday morning, we’ll see the snow level rise as warmer air moves in. As of now, it looks like it will end up between 5500′ and 6500′, with rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain starting around 4pm. Over 1” WV will fall overnight. This is another of those difficult scenarios, but at this point, it looks several degrees warmer than last night’s system, meaning it’s much more likely we’ll see the wrong kind of precipitation. But then again, let’s wait and see what the models think tomorrow.
There is zero consensus in the models beyond Tuesday morning, so don’t believe anything you read anywhere else. Everyone’s just going with climatology (the long-term average weather on any given day) which give the forecast about a 60% chance of accuracy.
Plain Old Local Weather
It’s cold and showery in the Gorge right now, and it’s going to stay cold (40’s) and showery and windy today. Tomorrow brings, most likely, some low clouds with a chance for some sunbreaks with temps in the 40’s. Monday starts with low clouds and ends with high clouds and rain and temps in the low 50’s.
Gorge Wind Forecast
I was glancing out the window while typing the forecast, and saw the trees on Westcliff Drive swaying back and forth in the wind, tips moving probably 10′ from side-to-side. There’s some power behind the moving air this morning, that’s for sure.
Wind readings aren’t spectacular yet, but gradient readings are: .12 pdx-dls, .13 dls-psc, and .39 N/S. That signals a darned good chance of 30+ from Maryhill eastward today with gusty 16-21 under the clouds in the rainy western Gorge. The wind will fade after 2pm, so don’t lollygag. Tomorrow starts with westerlies at 13-15. In the afternoon, the wind increases to 22-25 east of Mosier. Monday brings light easterlies that switch to light westerlies later in the day.
Road and Mountain Biking
Let it be, let it be, let it be, let it be. If you value trailwork, let it be, let it be. It’s muddy out there. Let Post Canyon and Whoopdee dry out a bit before you ride them. Please. For the sake of the volunteers.
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.
Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events
Coming up today, Ranger Jimmy T has the annual Charley’s Trail work day in honor of Charley LaVenture. Meet at the top of Charley’s Trail at 9am. After that, Dirty Fingers has a sale and bike swap, so round up all your unused bike gear and dump it on Mitchell’s floor. That’s 3-7. Apparently the crock pot request was actually a request for potluck items, so if you want to participate in a potluck today, bring something to Dirty Fingers to share.
Also today, the HRVHS soccer team plays in the state championships at 10:30am. You can go to Hillsboro to cheer on our awesome youth players, or you can watch the game live online here.
Finally, it’s still HUMPfest in Portland. You can score a seat by standing in the rush line if you show up 45ish minutes early.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
