Your forecaster.
Random Morning Thoughts
Gratitude Month, day 14: Can I be grateful for my view again this morning (minus the freeway, of course)? Because this morning’s sunrise was gorgeous (and distracting) as I wrote the forecast. No? Okay, today I am grateful to my friend CC for always being there to listen, for being there with a crass reply to any TMI I could throw at her, for being my friend. Oh, and for always having a Diet Coke for me. I miss you, lovely lady.
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(Very Chatty) Mt. Hood Snow Forecast
Mother Nature’s idea of fun and excitement will be visible on Mt. Hood today, with a diffucult-to-nail-forecast kind of day. It’ll be windy, that’s for sure, and lots of moisture will fall from the sky, that’s for sure, but the form of the moisture, well… in contrast to what I said yesterday, I now think it will be a mix. And by saying that, I should ensure that it stays all snow, all the time, leaving me looking like an a**hole!
The snow level starts at 2000′ today, rises to 2500′ by 1pm, 5000′ by 7pm, 6243′ by 10pm, and then falls to 4000′ around 1am. Without getting too technical, I’ll say that some things have changed in the models since yesterday to lead me to believe we’ll see rain or freezing rain between 7pm and midnight, maybe not that whole period, but likely (80%) for part of it. So, we’ll see .4” water value (WV) between 1pm and 7pm, for 3-5” of snow. Then another .8” falls between 10pm tonight and 4am Saturday, for a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain, for 3-6” of accumulation. Wind for this period will be W 30 this morning, ramping up to W 50-60 from 7pm onward.
On Saturday morning, the snow level will be down around 2000′, hovering between 1500′ and 2000′ all day. Terrain-enhanced snowfall (aka “orographic”, my favorite word), will give us .6-.8” WV by 4pm, for 6-9” of new snow. We’ll see another .2-.4” overnight into Sunday, for another 2-4”. Wind will be W 50 early, dropping to WNW 40 and holding all day.
Sunday looks partly cloudy with intermittent orographic snow. The snow level will be 2500′ early and 5000′ in the afternoon, with .1-.3” WV for 1-3” of new. Wind will be W 30 all day.
Monday looks dry, but the jet stream takes an unfavorable turn on Tuesday, coming out of the SW where the palm trees grow. Temps at 5000′ look to rise into the 40’s, with significant rainfall. The long-long range forecast currently suggests another such event next Friday, but that’s a very long way out to be placing bets.
Plain Old Local Weather
Get your dry-weather fun in this morning, because rain is going to start around noon and continue through tomorrow morning. We’ll see showers tomorrow morning, tapering off in the afternoon, and we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy conditions Sunday. Today looks mild, with highs right around 50, but tomorrow will only make it into the low 40’s. Sunday looks like mid-40’s.
Gorge Wind Forecast
Three days of wind in the forecast, Johnnies. That’s pretty special for November. This morning’s gradients are .11 (pdx-dls) and .04 (dls-psc), and that’s a good start to the day, especially since there’s actually some wind out there along with the gradient: 20 at Stevenson, 23 at Doug’s, and 15 at Arlington as of 7am. Expect the wind to ramp up, becoming 30+ from Doug’s to Arlington between 10am and 2pm. Get it early, because it will likely fade in the afternoon.
But don’t worry: as the low pressure system causing today’s rain and mountain snow moves east tonight and tomorrow, we’ll see another morning round of 30-35 east of The Dalles. Again, you’ll want to get it early. Sunday brings west wind at 15-18 through the whole Gorge.
Through this whole period, you can expect up-and-down 15-20 from Stevenson to Hood River and periods of 24-28 at Mosier. Sheesh. That’s a lot of wind words for the middle of November!
Road and Mountain Biking
Good-bye 44 Road trails. Again. How many times do you think I’ll say that this fall?
The Clymb: free membership. Cheap gear. Temira approves. Click to join.
Events – email me if I’ve missed any outdoor-related events
Tonight, of course, is the Gala Fashion Show at the Hood River Inn. Doors at 6pm. Show at 7pm. It will most likely be sold out, so you will most likely need to be downtown ticket hunting today if you’d like to go.
Coming up tomorrow, Ranger Jimmy T has the annual Charley’s Trail work day in honor of Charley LaVenture. Meet at the top of Charley’s Trail at 9am. After that, Dirty Fingers has a sale and bike swap, so round up all your unused bike gear and dump it on Mitchell’s floor. That’s 3-7 on Saturday, and also involves crock pots in some manner, so perhaps he’s feeding you?
Also tomorrow, the HRVHS soccer team plays in the state championships at 10:30am. You can go to Hillsboro to cheer on our awesome youth players, or you can watch the game live online here.
Finally, it’s HUMPfest in Portland. I’ll let you do your own Googling. Tickets, as always, are sold out, but it is possible to buy them from scalpers in line. Or there are a few “rush” tickets available if you’re willing to stand in line outside the theater for an hour.
Have an awesome day today!
Temira
