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Today started off partly cloudy, but that’s not going to last long with a fast-moving system approaching. We’ll see snow start falling by 1pm, with the snow level at 1500’ in the morning, dropping to 500’ by 7pm. We’re not going to see much snowfall; total water value of .1-.2” at best gives us 1-3” of new snow, likely on the low end of that. Wind will be SW 15-20 this morning, picking up to SW 25-30 by 1pm, dropping off a bit in the afternoon and swinging to NW 15-25 with clearing skies by 7pm. One thing to note: there is a decent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Wednesday looks clear and calm. The free air freezing (FAF) level will be 500’ early, warming to 2000’ in the afternoon and 5000’ overnight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see temps warm up a lot faster than models are predicting. Wind will be N 5-10 early, becoming light and variable. My beacon, shovel, probe and partner are stuffed into my pack, just in case.
Thursday starts off pretty warm, with cloudy skies, with the FAF at 6000’ and a stable temp profile up to 7500’. The freezing level will be at 7500’ by 1pm, dropping to 6500’ by 4pm and 5500’ by 7pm. We’re going to see some on-and-off precip during the day. Not much, but .1-.2” WV, and that’s most likely going to fall as r**n below 6500’. Precip will end by 10pm. Wind on Thursday will be SW 15-20 early going to SW 30ish by 10am and W 30ish by 4pm, dropping a bit to W 20-30 by 7pm.
Models aren’t agreeing yet on the timing of Friday’s system. At this point, it looks like the freezing level will be at 6000’+ when heavy precip hits around 7-10pm. It will stay rain until the 10pm/1am time period. Then it will switch to heavy snow. Why will it do this? Clearly Mother Nature thinks my friends at Meadows lift maintenance should get baked goods on Saturday, perhaps a pie? Snow continues during the day Saturday. At this point, it’s hard to tell how much of the initial shot will fall as snow, so I’ll leave it undiscussed for now, but it looks like we’ll see 4-6” of new during the day Saturday. Sunday brings continued orographic flurries and sunbreaks.
Models are still futzing around about the extended forecast, so I’ll just leave this as it is.
Have a great day today!
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