11/19 Mt. Hood massive rain followed by snow, Gorge wind potential, and hey, it’s Thanksgiving this week!

Posted by
Temira
Date
 November 19, 2012
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Mt. Hood Snow Forecast – 5000′
4a-8a 8a-12p 12p-4p 4p-8p 8p-4a
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday

Do not be fooled by the tranquil rainfall on Mt. Hood and in the Gorge this morning. Today’s system is powerful, and is already causing gusts in the 80-100mph range on the coast. Right now, the heaviest rainfall and strongest wind are to the north and west of Mt. Hood, but the system will slowly slide south and east today, setting up a dousing for Mt. Hood and, for that matter, everywhere else.

Here’s NOAA’s take: “TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY BY TUE MORNING FOR OUR INLAND VALLEYS…WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.”

The snow level today will be 6500′ in the morning, rising to 7500′ midday and falling back to 6500′ this evening. Total rainfall will be 2-4” by 4pm with another 2-4” by 4am Tuesday. I strongly suspect models are underestimating wind strength today: For exposed slopes at 5000′, the models predict SW 40-50 this morning, SW 50-70 midday and WSW 50 this evening. I think exposed upper elevation slopes will see 80-100mph when the system moves closer this evening.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, still looks iffy in the precip department. The snow level will be 6000′ at 1am, 5500′ at 4am, 5000′ at 4pm and 3500′ at 10pm. Total precip will be .5-.7” in the first system, mostly falling before 7am, for a mix of rain and snow, with a couple inches at 5000′ and more higher up. Around 4pm, a second, colder system moves in, with .8-1.0” of precip by Wednesday morning, for 8-12” of snow. Wind Tuesday will be SW 45-55 while it’s dark, dropping to SW 35-40 around 7am, and then picking back up to SW 45-55 at 4pm and SW 30 at 10pm.

Wednesday looks cold and snowy, with the snow level initially at 2000′, rising to 3000′ by 1pm and holding there through Thursday morning. .8-1.0” of water value falls as snow during the day, for 9-14” of new snow. Wind will be W 10-20 in the morning, rising to a punishing W 40-50 midday and dropping to W 30-40 in the evening.

Thursday starts out partly cloudy with the snow level at 3000′. It’ll slowly rise to 7000′ in the afternoon, but as of now, models are showing a dry day. Wind will be W 20-25 in the morning, SW 15-20 by noon and SW 25-30 in the late afternoon.

Friday looks warm and wet, with 5000′ temps at 4-6 degrees celcius and .5-1.0” rain. Saturday and Sunday are still in the models-don’t-agree zone, with half pointing the tropical jet north and half pointing it at Mt. Hood. Wait and see… Chance of Meadows opening Friday? Given the rain forecast for Friday, I’d say 10%. Chance of Meadows opening this weekend? 50/50. Depends on how the models converge for the weekend forecast…

In events this week, it’s Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday. The wind forecast contains the possibility of sailable/kiteable westerlies on Wednesday afternoon.

Have an awesome day today!

Temira